Zeros To Heroes '24 Reminder

With the new NFL season starting in a couple of days, I feel now is the time to once again mention the Zeros to Heroes selections for 2024.

For those who don't know what I am on about, here's what I do:

I place division winner bets on teams that have both (a) finished at the bottom of the division in the previous season and have (b) hired a brand new head coach for the upcoming season.

There are five teams which qualify per the rules of this betting strategy for 2024. All of the teams can be viewed below.

 

In the post published on March 25th, I pointed out a mistake I had made while placing the bet. 

I accidentally had the Arizona Cardinals as another team to bet on. But, that was not accurate because - even though the Cards finished fourth in the NFC West - they retained Jonathan Gannon as head coach.

Zeros To Heroes 2024 (Plus A Mess Up!)

I noticed that it is now possible to wager on teams to win their respective NFL divisions, so thought it was a perfect opportunity to place my Zeros to Heroes wagers for 2024.

However, I messed something up along the way. More on that later.

To those of you who may have missed my 'Zeros to Heroes' strategy over the years, here's what I do: I place wagers on teams to win their respective divisions if they (1) finished fourth in their division in the previous season and (2) appointed a new head coach.

For 2024, five of the eight teams that finished in fourth place last season have brought in new head coaches. Therefore, with five selections, I could have placed them in a Lucky 31 multiples bet.

'Could have' is the operative wording. That's because I made a mistake when I placed this year's bet.

For some reason, I had written the Arizona Cardinals to win the NFC West. They did indeed finish fourth last season. However, the Cardinals retained Jonathan Gannon's services for 2024.

So - my wager, which is a Lucky 63, has the following teams plus Arizona. 

I'll have to put an asterisk next to any returns I make should there be any zeros that become heroes in 2024.

Zeros To Heroes 2023 Results

The NFL 2023 season is now in the rear-view.

To put a final punctuation point on '23, I should update you on how the 'Zeros to Heroes' betting strategy worked last year.

If you are unaware of this strategy, it works like this:

I like to bet on teams winning their division of they have done two things. They are:

1. Finished last in their division in the previous season
2. Hired a new head coach ahead of the upcoming season

Using those two prerequisites, three teams were eligible to bet on last year. They were the Denver Broncos, Arizona Cardinals and Houston Texans.

I had a winner in the Houston Texans. They finished first in the AFC South  at odds of 15/2. 

Denver (AFC West) and Arizona (NFC West) finished third and fourth in their respective divisions.

As you'll see in THIS POST from last year, I had laid out a total sum of £15 on those three teams. Houston's win brought me back a total profit of £2.

A win is a win.

I'll return with a Zeros to Heroes post when it's closer to the 2024 regular season. There will be a lot more teams this time around.

As of right now, I count at least five teams that qualify.

My NFL Bets For 2023

The new NFL season will kick off in a little over an hour from when this post sees the light of day. So, as a very late preview, I thought I would share with you all of the season wagers I have in my wallets with the hope of cashing in (or not!) in early 2024.

Damar Hamlin to win Comeback Player of the Year
This was the first bet I placed on this season's NFL. I did so earlier this year when the odds for Hamlin to be the comeback player of 2023 were 7/4 with the betting website I am a customer of. Those odds have since tumbled right down into 1/4.

New York Jets to win the Super Bowl
I am hoping the trend of big-time quarterbacks jumping to new teams and winning the Super Bowl in their first season at the new club returns with Aaron Rodger now a member of Gang Green.

18/1 is the price I nabbed. I did a £5 each-way punt.

Indianapolis Colts to win the Super Bowl
This 150/1 gamble was done because I always have a small punt on the Colts every off-season. I also bet on Wales to win the 2022 World Cup, so that should point out that this is a 'fan bet' more than a serious one.

Anthony Richardson to Throw the Most Interceptions in the 2023 Season
If betting on the Colts was a 'fan bet', then me gambling on the team's new quarterback - Anthony Richardson - to throw the most interceptions out of any other QB in the league is my 'serious bet'.

There is a reason why I am betting against my favourite team's new quarterback.

Peyton Manning's first season in the league saw him get the most INTs. He went on to become a legend.

To get anywhere close to Manning, Richardson replicating 1998 would be a 'positive' start in my opinion.

Zeros to Heroes
I have done the annual Zeros to Heroes bet where I gamble on teams to win their division under a couple of conditions. I focus on teams that (1) finished last the previous year and (2) have hired a new head coach.

There are three teams that qualify for 2023. They are: Arizona, Denver and Houston.

I wrote more about Zeros to Heroes 2023 on May 14th.

Lindy's Exact Finishing Order Gambles
In previous years I have placed 'exact order' wagers using some of the American football yearbooks I buy during the summer. I have done the same thing this time, but have only used the finishing division order from the Lindy's Pro Football book for 2023.

I dislike a lot of the projections, but have still gambled on the order for a bit of fun to follow along during the season.

I have placed three multiples bets. They are:

1) A Lucky 15 on the order of the four divisions in the AFC (50p a line, so £7.50 spent)
2) A Lucky 15 on the order of the four divisions in the NFC (same staking as in the one for the AFC)
3) A Goliath bet - at 5p a line - using the order of all eight divisions in the league (total spend £12.35 for this bet)

Here are the orders I've bet on for each division. 

NFC North: DET, MIN, GB, CHI
NFC East: PHI, DAL, NYG, WAS
NFC South: NO, ATL, CAR, TB
NFC West: SF, SEA, LAR, ARI

AFC North: BAL, CIN, CLE, PIT
AFC East: MIA, BUF, NE, NYJ
AFC South: JAX, HOU, IND, TEN
AFC West: KC, LAC, DEN, LV

In a few cases, the magazine has some teams tied. I remedied that by going with the order with the longer odds.

For example, the writers have the AFC South having Jacksonville first, Houston second (wow) and then Indianapolis and Tennessee tied for third. I chose Indianapolis to finish ahead of the Titans because the odds were better than having the order of Jacksonville, Houston, Tennessee and then Indianapolis.

My Own Exact Finishing Order Opinions
My friend talked me into doing two Lucky 15s with my own division finishing orders, so here goes. Just like with the ones I've done using Lindy's projections, I've gone for 50p a line on both. 

Here are my picks for the divisions in the NFC:

And here are those for the AFC:

I'll take a look back at this post sometime in February and see how everything went.

Zeros To Heroes 2023

With the National Football League releasing its schedules for the 2023 regular season this week, I believe it's an appropriate time to get my annual Zeros to Heroes bet ready.

For those first coming across my blog - here's how Zeros to Heroes works.

I place division winner bets on the teams that have two thing working for (or against?!) them heading into the upcoming season.

First, the team has to have finished bottom of their respective division. The second prerequisite is the basement dwelling team from the previous season must have brought in a new head coach.

So, to put it bluntly - I am gambling on a team having a complete turnaround after a disastrous season.

In 2023, there are three teams that qualify.

First, the Denver Broncos are 11/2 to take the AFC West crown after bringing in Sean Payton during the off-season. I had placed a bet on the Broncos in 2022 and was somewhat confident - despite there being strong competition in the division (Chiefs and Chargers!) - I bought stock in Russell Wilson being the big signing who would save the day. That turned out to be a mess up because the Broncos finished 5-12 and the Chiefs went on to win the big one in February.

Another AFC team, in the form of the AFC South's Houston Texans, qualify per the two requirements. After going 3-13-1 in 2022, the team owners fired Lovie Smith and signed DeMeco Ryans to a six-year deal.

The only NFC team on the list are the Arizona Cardinals. They are 25/1 to win the West division in that conference.  Kliff Kingsbury was given his marching orders following a dismal 4-13 season, Replacing him will be Jonathan Gannon.

As you can see above, I've placed all three teams in a patent bet with my stakes at £2 a line. I have  also gambled an extra £1 on the Broncos just in case.

The reason for the extra £1 single is because if, and it's a big IF, that one selection were to win in the patent, the returns would mean I would take a £1 loss because of the 11/2 odds. Punting an extra £1 wager on Denver means I have gambled £15 overall and would get a £19.50 return (+4.50) should the Broncos finish the '23 season at the peak of the AFC West.

If the Texans or Cardinals win (once again these ifs are big), then I would profit so it isn't necessary to punt any additional monies on those two. 

With all that said, all three teams need miracles to win their respective divisions. I always go into the Zeros to Heroes gambles as what they are... gambles!

This post will serve as the main Zeros to Heroes post for 2023. I will direct/link to it ahead of the 2023 season and will then publish a post-mortem once the season has concluded.

Zeros To Heroes 2022: The Results

The following post was initially scheduled for 10 January '23, but was delayed due to the news of Gareth Bale's retirement

The Jacksonville Jaguars went from zeros to heroes in the 2022 NFL season.

The Floridian outfit was one of three teams that I pinpointed in my annual 'Zeros to Heroes' betting strategy which calls for division winner bets on teams that closed the previous season at the basements of their respective divisions and then went on to bring in a new head coach.

Post-2021, the qualifying teams - per the two rules - were Denver, the New York Giants and the Jags.

Denver, who brought in Nathaniel Hackett as head coach following the 2021 season, finished the 2022 season once again at the bottom of the AFC West.

And not only that - the Broncos management ended up firing Hackett, mid-season. Therefore, the Broncos will qualify for the 2023 edition of Zeros to Heroes.

The Giants brought in Brian Daboll in the days following the 2021 regular season. His appointment had a positive affect on the team. They closed 2022 with a win-loss record of 12-5 in the NFC East division. However, they finished in second place behind the NFC's best team of the season - the Philadelphia Eagles.

The Jaguars secured the AFC South on Saturday night when they won what turned out to be a division decider against the Tennessee Titans.

On July 17th, I wrote the Zeros to Heroes post for 2022 and shared the bets I had placed on the three teams to win their respective divisions.

I placed three £2.50 singles on the teams (Denver 5/2, Jacksonville 7/1, NY Giants 8/1) and also put all three in a £4 patent spending a total of £11.00 across all bets.

Jacksonville's win saw a return of £20 in the single wager and £4 in the patent.

Now all roads lead to preparation for the 2023 edition of Zeros to Heroes. I've already pointed out that Denver will once again be a qualifying team.

Another team that will be on the 2023 list - as of the time of writing - will be the Houston Texans, who fired Lovie Smith on Sunday evening. 

Add Arizona to the list. Its owners fired Kliff Kingsbury as I was in the middle of writing this post.

A Bet Builder Wager On Tennessee .vs. Jacksonville (2022 Season)

I am not going to enter any of the NFL daily fantasy contests today.

With this being the final weekend of the season, with some teams playing for their playoff futures and others - well - not, I thought it wasn't worth playing.

However, I have had a gamble.

The Jacksonville Jaguars versus Tennessee Titans game, which will kick off in a little over an hour from when this post goes live, will have both teams competing to win the AFC South division.

I thought I'd have a £5 bet builder punt on it. For the wager to win, I need the following three things to occur:

This game is also important for another reason.

Jacksonville was one of the qualifying teams Zeros to Heroes betting approach for the 2022 season. It requires the Jags to claim the AFC South to win.

I'll surely write more about this game in a future post once the regular season has concluded.

Zeros To Heroes 2022

In yesterday's post, I reintroduced the Zeros to Heroes NFL betting idea I like to write about ahead of an upcoming season.

What I do in these bets is take a look at the finishing order of each division from the previous season and then pick out the teams that (1) finished fourth and (2) hired a new head coach in the off-season.

I then gamble on those teams to win their division in the following year.

My idea has not performed well in recent years, but I have continued to place these small wagers as something to root for as the season is in progress.

I have taken a look at the 2021 results and pinpointed three of the eight teams which finished at the bottom of their leagues with new head coaches. They are:

New York Giants
The Giants are 8/1 to finish atop the NFC East with their new head coach - Brian Daboll.

Denver Broncos
The Broncos have brought in Nathaniel Hackett following the dismissal of Vic Fangio. Not only that, they have also signed Russell Wilson as quarterback. They're 5/2 to be division champs.

Jacksonville Jaguars

The Urban Meyer experiment turned out to be a costly one for the Jaguars. After firing Meyer, the Jags now have Doug Pederson in charge. An AFC South division win will pay out at odds of 7/1

My Bets

I've gambled on each team individually and have also included all three in a patent.

Zeros To Heroes 2021 Results

I was recently sorting out the Zeros to Heroes NFL betting idea I like to write about each year and realised that I hadn't published an update following the end of the 2021 season. So, here goes.

The idea behind the Zeros to Heroes wagers goes like this: I back teams to win divisions. However, each team I pick must have (1) finished at the bottom of the division in the previous season and (2) hired a new head coach in the off-season.

Five teams were eligible to bet on using those two prerequisites. All five failed to win top their division.

Atlanta Falcons
The Falcons brought in Arthur Smith, but finished third in the NFC South.

Detroit Lions
The Lions once again finished fourth in the NFC North. They had Dan Campbell in charge.

Jacksonville Jaguars
Going into 2021, the Jaguars lined up Urban Meyer as their new HC. It was a sink or swim decision. Ultimately, it turned out to be the latter. The office ended up firing Meyer after once again finishing in the dungeon of the AFC South. Spoiler alert: The Jags are eligible for a bet to win the division in 2022.

NY Jets
Robert Saleh was unable to improve the position the New York Jets held in the AFC East once again finishing fourth.

Philadelphia Eagles
The Eagles came the closest out of the five teams I bet on. They closed the 2021 in second place of the NFC East after bringing in Nick Sirianni to replace Doug Pederson.

I'll return tomorrow with a look at the teams I've backed to win their respective divisions in 2022.

View The 2022 Edition Of Zeros to Heroes

Zeros To Heroes 2021

There is a reminder on my phone that is set to go off on June 4th. It is going to tell me 'Don't forget to do a Zeros to Heroes blog post for the 2021 NFL season'.

I don't need that reminder now.

The reason why is because you are currently reading the Zeros To Heroes blog post for the 2021 NFL season.

For those unaware of what I am going on about, here's what I do. 

As I prepare for the upcoming season, I take a look at all of the teams that have finished at the bottom of their respective divisions and see if they have appointed a new head coach. If they have, I have a bet on them.

For 2021, there are five teams that qualify under my rules. Those franchises are: Atlanta Falcons, Detroit Lions, Jacksonville Jaguars, New York Jets and Philadelphia Eagles.

What I usually do is place the teams into a multiples bet. I have done that once again. This time, they're all in a 25p a line Lucky 31 which comes to £7.75. 

As well as the Lucky 31, I have also put £4 on each team individually.

The selections, along with their prices, are:

Atlanta Falcons to win NFC South 9/1
Detroit Lions to win NFC North 22/1
Jacksonville Jaguars to win AFC South 13/1
New York Jets to win AFC East 13/1
Philadelphia Eagles to win NFC East 13/5

I am planning to write a reminder when we're nearer to the season. If I forget, the next post about this betting idea will be a look back to see how it fared once the season has concluded.

Zeros To Heroes 2021 Update For January 12th

 I didn't think I'd get to do another 'Zeros to Heroes' post until the spring or summer, but here goes.

On Saturday - when I wrote about the NFL betting system, in which I look to bet on teams to win their divisions after finishing bottom with a different head coach the previous season, I pointed out that - for 2021 - there would be four teams eligible with Atlanta, Detroit, Jacksonville and the New York Jets all finishing the 2020 season in fourth place in their respective leagues and all will have new head coaches in place by the kick off of the 2021 season.

Well, the Philadelphia Eagles made a move yesterday which means they'll be added to the wagers as it was announced that the team - which finished fourth in the NFC East - fired Doug Pederson.

The five teams that I'll have to bet on are now:

Philadelphia Eagles
Atlanta Falcons
Detroit Lions
Jacksonville Jaguars
New York Jets

A Look Back At Zeros To Heroes 2020

On June 4th of last year, I published a post in which I once again wrote about my Zeros to Heroes NFL bets. It's now time to see how those wagers fared at the conclusion of the 2020 regular season.

The method behind the Zeros to Heroes bets is to gamble on the teams that finished at the bottom of their division in the previous season and then hired a new head coach during the post or off-season.

For 2020, two teams were eligible. They were the Carolina Panthers, who hired Matt Rhule after finishing bottom in the NFC South, and the Washington team who hired former Panthers head coach - Ron Rivera.

As I like betting multiples rather than singles, I decided to add the teams I had punted on in 2019 to Carolina and Washington.

I found that there was a  crossover because I had Tampa Bay and Carolina both to win the NFC South. Therefore, I placed two separate Lucky 63 bets with one of the selections being the Buccaneers and the other being the Panthers.

They looked like this:

Bet 1

Cincinnati to win the AFC North

NY Jets to win the AFC East

Tampa Bay to win the NFC South

Arizona to win the NFC West

Washington to win the NFC East

Bet 2

Cincinnati to win the AFC North

NY Jets to win the AFC East

Carolina to win the NFC South

Arizona to win the NFC West

Washington to win the NFC East

The results were:

Cincinnati finished bottom of the AFC North

NY Jets went 2-14 and finished fourth in the AFC East

Tampa Bay finished second in the NFC South

Carolina finished third in the NFC South

Arizona were third in the NFC West

Washington won NFC East

I ended up making a profit of..... 32p!

I'll return with a Zeros to Heroes for the 2021 season later in the year. 

This time, I won't need to add teams from previous bets - like I did in 2020 due to only two teams being eligible - because four teams that finished bottom of their respective divisions in 2020 that will have new head coaches in place for 2021. They are:

Atlanta Falcons

Detroit Lions

New York Jets 

Jacksonville Jaguars

It'll be a Lucky 15 multiple when the bet is placed.

Another 'Exact Finishing Order' Bet For The 2020 NFL Season

I placed yet another 'Exact Finishing Order' NFL division bet recently.

It was an extension of a plan I wrote about last Wednesday. In those bets, I placed three Super Heinz bets using the predicted finishes that three annual publications came up with for the 2020 season.

I once again used the finishes projected by the yearbooks. However, I made some changes.

- This time, I did a Lucky 31 and bet on the five divisions in which the three magazines were not in agreement

- I chose which magazine's pick to use for each division by spinning a circle (this was an idea my nephew suggested)

The spinner was also used to work out the order I picked each league.

Here's what the division order spinner looked like.

The order came in as follows:

1. AFC West

2. NFC North

3. AFC South

4. NFC West

5. AFC North

Here's what the yearbook picker looked like. I added each magazine three times. 

Here are the results. I have added the odds beside each order.

AFC West

Gridiron's yearbook was the winner in the battle to have the selection for the AFC West. 

 KANSAS CITY, LAS VEGAS, DENVER, LA CHARGER 9/2

NFC North

Lindy's prediction for the NFC North was what was selected in the second spin.

MINNESOTA, CHICAGO, GREEN BAY, DETROIT 17/2

AFC South

The circle stopped once again stopped on Gridiron in the third spin. This time, it was selecting for the AFC South pick.

TENNESSEE, INDIANAPOLIS, HOUSTON, JACKSONVILLE 7/2

NFC West

The Street and Smith yearbook is what the spinner stopped at for the NFC West selection.

SAN FRANCISCO, SEATTLE, LA RAMS, ARIZONA 7/2

AFC North

Street and Smith was the magazine that the circle selected for the AFC North. 

 BALTIMORE, PITTSBURGH, CLEVELAND, CINCINNATI  8/5

My Bet

As mentioned above, the five selections were to be placed in a Lucky 31. I chose to go with 50p a line, so the total spend came to £15.50.

If I am fortunate to get everything right, not only would I be very surprised, I would also have a return of £3,715.71.

An 'Exact Finishing Order' NFL Betting Idea

I had yet another American football betting idea while looking through the 2020 season preview guides last week.

It went like this:

Wouldn't it be interesting to place bets on the exact division finishing order that each book has projected for the upcoming season?

I had a look across a selection of online bookmakers to see which ones were offering the ability to gamble on the exact positions each division will end. All I could find was Paddy Power.

I wanted to do a Goliath with the eight selections. However, for some reason (possibly Tom Brady jumping ship from the New England Patriots), the bookies weren't accepting wagers on the correct order that the AFC East finishes up.

With there only being seven divisions to bet on, I was forced to go the Super Heinz route. 

A Super Heinz wager consists of 120 bets starting from all possible doubles that can be made with seven selections right up to one seven-fold.

The three wagers were done using the following yearbooks:

Gridirion

Lindy's

Street and Smith's Football 2020

In the sections below, I'll write about the division orders that each book has predicted and then get on to showing you what the odds are as well as the possible winnings I'll make from each bet.

It should go without saying that these wagers are really something to follow along during the season. I'm not going in expecting to win the jackpot, if you will. 

NFC South

All three yearbooks have the New Orleans Saints winning the division. They also have the same sequence when it comes to second, third and fourth places.

The order is: New Orleans, Tampa Bay, Atlanta, Carolina

NFC East

The yearbooks have the NFC South to end in the following order: Dallas, Philadelphia, New York Giants, Washington.

NFC North

Green Bay is fancied to win the NFC North by Street and Smith and Gridiron. However, the folks at Lindy's have Minnesota to be division champions.

Street and Smith's Order: Green Bay, Chicago, Minnesota, Detroit

Gridiron's order: Green Bay, Minnesota, Chicago, Detroit

Lindy's order: Minnesota, Chicago, Green Bay, Detroit

NFC West

All the books have San Francisco to be the victors of the NFC West. They also believe Seattle will finish second. However, there is a conflict of opinion with how third and fourth place will end with Lindy's and Gridiron picking Arizona to finish third ahead of the Los Angeles Rams while Street and Smith has Los Angeles third followed by the Cardinals.

Street and Smith's order: San Francisco, Seattle, Los Angeles Rams, Arizona

Gridiron's order: San Francisco, Seattle, Arizona, Los Angeles Rams

Lindy's order: San Francisco, Seattle, Arizona, Los Angeles Rams

AFC South

Lindy's believes that the Indianapolis Colts will be AFC South division champions while the other two have the Tennessee Titans doing so. 

Street and Smith's order: Tennessee, Houston, Indianapolis, Jacksonville

Gridiron's order: Tennessee, Indianapolis, Houston, Jacksonville

Lindy's order: Indianapolis, Houston, Tennessee, Jacksonville

AFC East

All three yearbooks have the AFC East to be won by the Buffalo Bills with New England as first runners up. Then comes a contrast with Lindy's picking the Jets to finish in third ahead of Miami while the other two publications have Miami and then the Jets.

As noted above - at the time of my wagers, the market for the AFC East was off the board. Therefore, I was unable to place bets on this division.

Street and Smith's order: Buffalo, New England, Miami, NY Jets,

Gridiron's order: Buffalo, New England, Miami, NY Jets

Lindy's order: Buffalo, New England, NY Jets, Miami

AFC North

The Baltimore Ravens are all three magazines' picks to win the AFC North. However, there are conflicts with the rest of the order. Lindy's and Street and Smith have the same order while Gridiron has a different projection.

Street and Smith's order: Baltimore, Pittsburgh, Cleveland, Cincinnati

Lindy's order: Baltimore, Pittsburgh, Cleveland, Cincinnati 

Gridiron's order: Baltimore, Cleveland, Pittsburgh, Cincinnati 

AFC West

Street and Smith's book  - along with Gridiron - have Kansas City winning the AFC West followed by Las Vegas, Denver and the Los Angeles Chargers. Lindy's projection has the Chiefs followed by the Broncos, Chargers and Raiders.

Street and Smith's order: Kansas City, Las Vegas, Denver, Los Angeles Chargers

Gridiron's order: Kansas City, Las Vegas, Denver, Los Angeles Chargers

Lindy's order: Kansas City, Denver, Los Angeles Chargers, Las Vegas

My Bets

I have wagered 10p per line in the Super Heinz. Therefore, I've spent £12 on each wager. That's £36 in total.

All of the bets can be viewed below. You can see what I've gambled on and, most importantly, see what the odds are for each selection.

Street and Smith's Super Heinz

AFC West: KC, LV, DEN, LAC 9/2

NFC East: DAL, PHI, NYG, WAS 2/1

AFC North: BAL, PIT, CLE, CIN 8/5

AFC South: TEN, HOU, IND, JAX 13/2

NFC North: GB, CHI, MIN, DET 13/2

NFC South: NO, TB, ATL, CAR 13/10

NFC West: SF, SEA, LAR, ARI 7/2

Potential Winnings: £12,270.73

Gridiron's Super Heinz

AFC West: KC, LV, DEN, LAC 9/2

NFC East: DAL, PHI, NYG, WAS 2/1

AFC North: BAL, CLE, PIT, CIN 11/5

AFC South: TEN, IND, HOU, JAX 7/2

NFC North: GB, MIN, CHI, DET 5/1

NFC South: NO, TB, ATL, CAR 13/10

NFC West: SF, SEA, ARI, LAR 13/1

Potential Winnings: £20,806.84

Lindy's Super Heinz

AFC West: KC, DEN, LAC, LV 4/1

NFC East: DAL, PHI, NYG, WAS 2/1

AFC North: BAL, PIT, CLE, CIN 8/5

AFC South: IND, HOU, TEN, JAX 11/2

NFC North: MIN, CHI, GB, DET 17/2

NFC South: NO, TB, ATL, CAR 13/10

NFC West: SF, SEA, ARI, LAR 13/1

Potential Winnings: £33,675.41

If all goes well (ie - the season happens and concludes properly), I'll publish an update with a look at how the yearbooks' picks compared to actuality.

A Look Back At Zeros To Heroes 2019 And A View Ahead To 2020

On September 4th of last year, I published a post titled Zeros to Heroes. In it, I wrote about a betting idea I had for the 2019 NFL season.

The plan was to circle teams that (a) finished at the bottom of their divisions in 2018 and (b) hired a new head coach for 2019.

I would then bet on those franchises to win their division in 2019.

Four teams were eligible. They were: 

Cincinnati to win the AFC North

NY Jets to win the AFC East 

Tampa Bay to win the NFC South

Arizona to win the NFC West

The idea didn't work out as well as I had expected. The results were:

Cincinnati once again finished bottom of AFC North

NY Jets finished third in the AFC East

Tampa Bay also finished third in the NFC South

Arizona finished bottom of the NFC West

Now, I find myself wondering how to approach the 2020 season. 

If I were to do the same thing for 2020, the teams that would qualify - per the two requirements of finishing bottom in 2019 and having a new head coach for 2020 - would be:

Washington to win the NFC East

Carolina to win the NFC South

Looking at the odds, the best prices I can find for Washington is 16/1 and - for Carolina - it's 22/1.

I was thinking about adding last year's teams to the two for the upcoming season, but realised that there would be an overlap with Tampa Bay and Carolina both being in the same division. Therefore, I've placed TWO separate small stakes Lucky 63s. One will include Carolina while the other will have Tampa Bay.

Here's how they look:

2020 Bet 1

Cincinnati to win the AFC North

NY Jets to win the AFC East

Tampa Bay to win the NFC South

Arizona to win the NFC West

Washington to win the NFC East

2020 Bet 2

Cincinnati to win the AFC North

NY Jets to win the AFC East

Tampa Bay to win the NFC South

Arizona to win the NFC West

Washington to win the NFC East

Due to betting restrictions, I was unable to place my bets with just one company. I had to place one elsewhere at slightly shorter odds.  Still, I got the bets on ready for September.

Zeros To Heroes 2019

With the NFL season just around the corner, I thought I'd share a season bet that I've placed for fun.

My idea is to look at all the teams that finished last in their division in the 2018 season. Then, from all eight of those names, I pick out all the teams that hired new head coaches during the off-season and then bet on them to win the division.

There were four qualifying teams for this year. I've put them all in a Lucky 15.

The teams are:

Cincinnati to win the AFC North
NY Jets to win the AFC East
Tampa Bay Buccaneers to win the NFC South
Arizona Cardinals to win the NFC West

As I stated at the start, this is just for fun more than anything else. I know all four of these teams have mountains to conquer this year and beyond.

I'll write about how these teams - and ultimately, the bet - fared once the season has concluded.