Thursday, December 01, 2022

Predicting The TNF Week 13 Winners (2022)

The spreadsheet had its first perfect week last Thursday when it had both Minnesota -2.5 and Over 42.5 in the point-spread and total for the Vikings' 33-26 victory over the New England Patriots on last week's Thursday Night Football game.

The result meant that the spreadsheet now has a record of 12-10 so far in 2022. For what it's worth, the spreadsheet is 6-5 in pointspread plays and is also at that number as it pertains totals recommendations.

Thursday Night Football Betting After 12 Weeks (2022)

For tonight, the spreadsheet has the Buffalo Bills to beat the New England Patriots by four points and for the total number of points to be forty-six. Therefore, it is calling for plays on the bookies' favourite and the over.

Recommended Plays
Buffalo -3.5
Over 43.5

I have referred to a database of results dating back to the 2021 to see whether there is anything to make a case for both plays. Here's what I found:
  • The Bills are 4-5 against the spread as favourites against the Patriots
  • The Bills are 2-0 whenever they've been favourites in New England
  • The Over is 19-23-1 in all meetings since 2001
  • The Over is 9-11-1 in games played in New England

World Cup 2022 Betting Diary

I am going to have a bet on every single game of this year's World Cup. And - on top of that - for fun, I'm going to share my predictions and keep track of my progress.

This post will float across the blog for the next month. It'll be updated each matchday right up to the day of the final.

* * * *

Sunday 20 November
For the first game of the tournament, I've done a bet builder with three selections.

Qatar .vs. Ecuador
1) Under 3 Goals in the Match
2) Both Teams Receive a Card in the Match
3) Most Goals to be Scored in 2nd Half

I've laid out £5 and will get a 25% bonus on my return should it win.

World Cup 2022 - Day 1

Result: Qatar 0 Ecuador 2
I lost the bet. I correctly guessed the match to have under 3 goals and for both teams to receive a card. However, both goals were scored in the first half. Therefore, the losing selection was the 'Most Goals to be Scored in 2nd Half'.

I'm at -£5 heading into tomorrow's fixtures.

Monday 21 November
There are a trio of games today. I have a free £5 bet builder on the England .vs. Iran game, so I'm not laying anything out on it and - because of that - I've gone a little bit overboard by betting on a red card in the game as one of my selections.

England .vs. Iran
1) England to win
2) Both Teams to Score
3) Over 2.5 Cards
4) A Red Card in the Match

I have been given a free £1 bet builder with Sky Bet. I've picked two things:

1) Harry Kane to score 2 goals
2) A Goal in Both Halves

Result: England 6 Iran 2
Harry Kane didn't score any of the goals and was substituted later in the game to end any chance of him getting one, let alone two.

For the remaining games of the day, I've gone with;

Senegal .vs. Netherlands
1) Both Teams to Score in Both Halves £1 single at 25/1

Result: Senegal 0 Netherlands 2
The scoreline tells the story - both teams didn't score in both halves.

Wales .vs. USA
I have placed a £2 bet builder and need the following things to happen.

1) Gareth Bale to Score Anytime
2) Gareth Bale Over 0.5 Shots On Target
3) Aaron Ramsey Over 0.5 Shots
4) Both Teams to Score

Result: Wales 1 USA 1
Three of the four selections came in. The one which let me down was Aaron Ramsey not having at least one shot on goal.

Tuesday 22 November
Starting off today, I have not won any bets and I am £8 in the red. I don't have any free bets on the four matches for the day.

Argentina .vs. Saudi Arabia
I've a £2 bet builder with two selections in the first game of the day. The things I need to happen are for:

1) Lionel Messi to Have Over 0.5 Shots on Target
2) 2nd Half to Have Most Goals

Result: Argentina 1 Saudi Arabia 2
What an upset. Fortunately, it worked out well for my bet. The first selection came in within the first couple of minutes when Lionel Messi had a shot stopped. That was followed by Saudi Arabia's two goals in the second half after coming back from the break a goal down. I had a return of £4.40.

Denmark .vs. Tunisia
A £1 bet builder with the following two selections

1) Kasper Dolberg Anytime Goalscorer
2) Under 3 Goals in Match

Result: Denmark 0 Tunisia 0
I had my £1 returned to me because it fell under the promotion which refunds bets if there is a goalless draw.

Mexico .vs. Poland
I have bet £5 on:

1) Both Teams to Score in the 2nd Half

Result: Mexico 0 Poland 0
The 'Bore Draw' promotion doesn't apply to the market I bet in this game. Therefore, this was a fiver loss.

France .vs. Australia
I was going to bet on Kylian Mbappe to score two or more goals, but then decided I'd pick him to be the man of the match. I have £2.74 riding on that one at odds of 3/1.

1) Kylian Mbappe Man of the Match

Result: France 4 Australia 1
Mbappe was named the Man of the Match. In my opinion, it was a close call because a lot of those French players, for example: Olivier Giroud, could have easily won it. This win brought back £10.96.

Kylian Mbappe Man of the Match (France .vs. Australia, World Cup 2022)

Wednesday 23 November
I started off the day at -£2.38 for the tournament. I'll have four £1 bets today just to see if I end up in the black by this evening.

My bets are:

Morocco .vs. Croatia
Both Teams to Score and Croatia to Win

Result: Morocco 0 Croatia 0
Another 0-0 draw. The 'Bore Draw' promotion didn't apply to the specials market I bet on, so that's a £1 loss.

Germany .vs. Japan
Germany -1.5 Asian Handicap

Result: Germany 1 Japan 2
A great result for Japan. A bad one for me.

Spain .vs. Costa Rica
Both Teams to Score in Both Halves

Result: Spain 7 Costa Rica 0
Another great result, but not for me!

Belgium .vs. Canada
The final wager of the day is a bet builder that needs three things to occur during the game.

1) Over 3 Goals
2) Kevin De Bruyne Over 0.5 Assists
3) Kevin De Bruyne Over 1.5 Shots on Target

Result: Belgium 1 Canada 0
Dreadful game for Belgium despite winning. Canada fought a fight.

I am now at -£6.38 heading into tomorrow.

Thursday 24 November
Here are the wagers I've placed on today's fixtures.

Switzerland .vs. Cameroon
A £1 bet builder which needs:

1) Both Teams to be Carded
2) Over 2 Goals in Match
3) 2nd Half to Have Most Goals

Result: Switzerland 1 Cameroon 0
This game was two goals short for the bet to be declared a winner.

Uruguay .vs. South Korea
Another £1 bet builder. This one requires:

1) Uruguay to Score in Both Halves
2) Luis Suarez to Score Anytime
3) Both Teams to Score

Result: Uruguay 0 South Korea 0
Zzzzzzzz. I had a refund on the bet because of the 0-0 score, though.

Portugal .vs. Ghana
£2 single on

1) Cristiano Ronaldo to Score 2+ Goals

Result: Portugal 3 Ghana 2
Ronaldo scored the first goal only.

Brazil .vs. Serbia
I placed a free £2 bet builder on:

1) Serbia to Receive the Most Cards
2) Goal Scored in Both Halves
3) Over 3.5 Goals
4) Brazil to Win

Result: Brazil 2 Serbia 0
The bet died at half-time. They went into the break at 0-0.

I finish tonight down by £9.38 overall. Back tomorrow!

Friday 25 November
I have some free bets for today's games.

Wales .vs. Iran
I have a £2 free bet builder which needs a couple of things to happen. They are:

1) Over 0.5 First Half Goals
2) Over 2.5 Goals in the Game

Result: Wales 0 Iran 2
This bet lost at the half. 

Qatar .vs. Senegal
A £1 bet builder which needs:

1) Over 2 Goals
2) Both Teams NOT to Score

Result: Qatar 1 Senegal 3
Frustrating. Senegal had two goals and I was looking for them to score a third. Qatar scored to take the game over two goals, but ruin the entire bet by having both teams as scorers. Then, to add insult to injury, Senegal scored a third.

Netherlands .vs. Ecuador
A £1 bet builder on:

1) Both Teams to Score in Both Halves
2) Over 3 Goals in Game

Result: Netherlands 1 Ecuador 1
Another loss.

England .vs. USA
Another free £2 bet builder. This one requires:

1) Both Teams to Score
2) Over 2.5 Cards
3) England to Have Over 0.5 Cards
4) Over 2.5 Goals

Result: England 0 USA 0
The bad run continued.

Today's losses have put me £11.38 in the red overall. It could be worse. However, it could be a heck of a lot worse.

Saturday 26 November
Here are the gambles I've made for today's fixtures.

Tunisia .vs. Australia
A £1 single on:

1) Over 2.5 Goals in the Second Half

Result: Tunisia 0 Australia 1
The only goal was scored in the first half.

Poland .vs. Saudi Arabia
£1 bet builder needing the following two selections to come in:

1) Both Teams to Score in the Second Half
2) Most Goals to be Scored in the Second Half

Result: Poland 2 Saudi Arabia 0
Another loser.

France .vs. Denmark
A £2 bet builder on

1) France to Win
2) Kylian Mbappe to Score Anytime
3) Over 3 Goals in the Match

Result: France 2 Denmark 1
All three came in with Mbappe scoring both of France's goals. The wager returned £12.

Argentina .vs. Mexico
I used a £2 free bet to wager on the following three things to happen:

1) Both Teams to Score in Both Halves
2) Over 3.5 Goals
3) Lionel Messi to Score or Assist

Result: Argentina 2 Mexico 0
Well, I didn't get the first two selections correct. Messi scored the first goal. 

Sunday 27 November
I've bet a bunch of wacky £1 bets on each game today. All need early goals. And then some.

Japan .vs. Costa Rica
1) Costa Rica to be Winning in the 10th Minute
2) Costa Rica to Win

Result: Japan 0 Costa Rica 1
Costa Rica did win.. but they weren't leading in the tenth minute.

Belgium .vs. Morocco
1) Morocco to be winning in the 10th Minute
2) Morocco to Win

Result: Belgium 0 Morocco 2
Another case of me getting far too cute with the eventual winning team to be leading at the ten minute mark.

Croatia .vs. Canada
1) Canada to be Winning in the 10th Minute

Result: Croatia 4 Canada 1
It was third time lucky in regards to the punts on the underdog leading in the tenth minute. Canada went one-up in the second minute and held on in time for my bet to settle at 8/1. Even more fortunate for me, I didn't add 'Canada to win' in the end as I had done with the first couple of bets today.

Spain .vs. Germany
1) Spain to be Winning in the 10th Minute
2) Most Goals in the Second Half

Result: Spain 1 Germany 1
Spain came close to having the lead before the tenth minute, but the ball didn't go in. As for the second part of the bet - that would have won because both goals were scored in the second half.

Today's win moves me into the black. I am now +1.62.

Monday 28 November
I have done something different today. 

A Lucky 15 bet, at 15p a line, which needs the following half-time/full-time scores.

1) Cameroon .vs. Serbia: 0-0 Half-Time / 2-0 Serbia Full-Time
2) South Korea .vs. Ghana: 0-0 Half-Time / 2-0 South Korea Full-Time
3) Brazil .vs. Switzerland: 1-0 Half-Time / 2-0 Brazil Full-Time
4) Portugal .vs. Uruguay: 0-0 Full-Time / 2-0 Portugal Full-Time

Results
1) Cameroon .vs. Serbia: HT 1-2 FT 3-3
2) S. Korea .vs. Ghana: HT 0-2 FT 2-3
3) Brazil .vs. Switzerland: HT 0-0 FT 1-0
4) Portugal .vs. Uruguay: HT 0-0 FT 2-0

I had one winning selection with the final game of the day coming in for me. The odds were 18/1, but were doubled due to the rule, in Lucky 15 bets, which doubles the odds if only one selection is a winner. 

It returned £5.55 from my £2.25 stake. I'm now at +4.92 leading into the final batch of group games.

Even though I won today, I cannot see myself having another go at these HT/FT scoreline punts. 

As of this evening, I am sitting on +4.92 profit.

Tuesday 29 November
I'm back to the bet builders today. Three are for £1 each while the fourth is a free £5 stake.

Ecuador .vs. Senegal
I've put £1 on the following scenarios to occur in this one:

1) Over 3 Goals
2) Over 2 Cards
3) Both Teams to Score in Both Halves

Result: Ecuador 1 Senegal 2

Netherlands .vs. Qatar
£1 on:

1) Both Teams to Receive a Card
2) Over 2 Goals
3) Most Goals to be Scored in the 2nd Half

Result: Netherlands 2 Qatar 0

Iran .vs. USA
£1 on (prepare for a crazy one):

1) Both Teams to Score in Both Halves
2) No Red Card in the Match
3) Exactly 4 Goals in the Match
4) Full Time Score to be 2-2

Result: Iran 0 USA 1

Wales .vs. England
I used a free £5 bet builder on:

1) Over 3.5 Goals
2) Both Teams to Score in Both Halves
3) Gareth Bale to have 2 or More Shots
4) Wales to Have Over 0.5 Cards

Result: Wales 0 England 3

I am now at +1.92 after today's four losses.

Wednesday 30 November
For today, I've put £1 bet builders on each of the following:

Australia .vs. Denmark 

1) Both Teams to Score in the Match
2) Odd Number of Goals in the Match
3) Most Goals in the Second Half

Result: Australia 1 Denmark 0

Tunisia .vs. France

1) Kylian Mbappe Anytime Scorer
2) Both Teams NOT to Score in the Match

Result: Tunisia 1 France 0

Poland .vs. Argentina

1) Both Teams to Score in Both Halves

Result: Poland 0 Argentina 0-2

Saudi Arabia .vs. Mexico

1) Score to be 0-0 at Half Time
2) Most Goals to be Scored in the 2nd Half
3) Both Teams to Receive a Card

Result: Saudi Arabia 1 Mexico 2
This good news: the bet won with both teams getting yellows instead of goals in the first half and then having all the game's goals in the second half.
The not so good news: the odds were 3/1, so I broke even for the day!

I'm back to +1.92.

Thursday 1 December
The bets I've placed for today's games are:

Croatia .vs. Belgium
£1 bet builder which needs:

1) Belgium to be Winning at the 10th Minute
2) Over 2 Goals
3) Both Teams to Score

Result: Croatia 0 Belgium 0

Canada .vs. Morocco
Another £1 bet builder:

1) 0-0 Half Time Score
2) No Red Card
3) Most Goals in the Second Half

Result: Canada 1 Morocco 2

Japan .vs. Spain
I've gambled £5 on the following:

1) Over 2 Goals
2) Over 1 Card
3) Spain to win by 2+ Goals

Costa Rica .vs. Germany
I have two £1 bet builders on this game.

1) Both Teams to Score
2) Over 2 Goals

and:

1) Most Goals to be Scored in the 2nd Half
2) A Red Card in the Game

Wednesday, November 30, 2022

Righting Last Week's Wrong

After last week's disaster, which was tasting a Vegan Festive Bake from Greggs, I corrected the ship this week by buying my first proper Festive Bake for Christmas 2022.

Greggs Festive Bake (2022)

I had it yesterday lunchtime. Apparently, there is a new recipe, but I didn't notice any difference to previous years.

Another thing I bought was a chocolate coated Christmas cake. I was hoping it would have an inside similar to the little mini Christmas puddings Greggs used to have when I was a child. Unfortunately, my wish was fruitless. It was a chocolate sponge. Still, it was enjoyable.

Greggs Chocolate Cake (2022)

Tuesday, November 29, 2022

Wales In Qatar: Over And Out

Wales is out of the 2022 World Cup.

Look - the fact that the team even made it to Qatar should be the story today.

I've written many times how amazing it is, now was, how I finally got to see my home country compete on football's grandest stage.

I sit here, at the PC, with thoughts of some legendary players - who wore the red of Wales - from my childhood and young adulthood who were just as good, if not better, than the members of the current squads that have made it to the last two Euros and now the World Cup. 

None of those players had the honour of getting to the big ones. 

Respect to the current era who have.

I don't know what happens from here other than I can now say I've seen Wales play in a World Cup. 

I hope it's not the last time I see them in one.

Monday, November 28, 2022

King Update For 2022

At the start of the year, I set myself a goal to read at least five books by Stephen King.

I was a little bit cheeky with the number because I was planning to read more than five because I have set a long-term aim to read everything I can by the author.

As of today, I have finished twenty-three titles. There are a heck of a lot more to read, but I have - for the past few weeks - decided to take a break, for a reason I'll explain below, until the start of 2023.

I've read a few King books, here and there, over the years but I started from scratch with his first novel - Carrie - in 2021 and decided to read everything in order from early 2022. With that said, I did move some books to the front of the queue when I decided to read a copy of 11/22/63 I have had since the paperback came out years ago. 

I also bought - and read - Fairy Tale when it was published back in September.

The Stand is my favourite Stephen King novel so far. I think reading it during the middle of a pandemic made the story even more thought provoking. I cannot help but wonder how scary I would have found it had I decided to read the novel in 2020. 


At 1,152 pages, The Stand is also the longest book I have read in 2022 (thanks Good Reads for informing me of that fact!). I don't want to read the next book on my Stephen King list because I'd rather be in contention for the longest book I'll read in 2022.

The title in question is It. According to Good Reads, It has 1,116 pages. I aim to start reading - or in It's case: rereading - it at the start of 2023. 

For now, you can see the ranking of the books I have read/reread since I began this mission.

Stephen King Ranking

Sunday, November 27, 2022

My Week 12 DFS Fantasy Team (2022)

Here's the team I've entered into the £5 daily fantasy contest for this evening's NFL games.

Week 12 DFS Team (2022)

After returning £9 in last week's contest, I entered one for the three Thanksgiving Games on Thursday

The team I created picked up a total of 99.64 points finishing in 163,938th place out of 238,095 entries. The score wasn't enough to get any money back. Looking at the results, it appears as though 116.80 was the region where people started to see any returns from their stakes.

NFL Thanksgiving 2022 DFS Result

Saturday, November 26, 2022

Yesterday

I didn't like yesterday at all.

Well, that opening sentence was a bit OTT. 

Yesterday was a regular day. I just didn't like ONE thing that happened.

Okay, I didn't like TWO things that happened.

I didn't like Iran scoring a goal against Wales in their World Cup group game. I also disliked Iran getting a second shortly after that.

I know I've experienced a lot of sporting heartache over the years. Yesterday was one of the worst.

Friday, November 25, 2022

My Thanksgiving DFS Team (2022)

Here's the team I have entered into a Thanksgiving Day fantasy contest.

Thanksgiving NFL DFS Team 2022

Most of the players would have played their games by the time this post goes live, so you'll know whether it is looking good or not.

The team I entered into Sunday's contest scored a total of 111.2 points and finished in 38,392nd place out of 309,523. It returned £9 because the cut-off for a win was 103.80 points.

DFS Week 11 Result