Tuesday, November 05, 2024

US Election '24 And The Gambling 'Vet'

It is election day in the USA.

As it stands, and it doesn't completely mean much at this stage in the game, Donald Trump is the betting favourite to beat Kamala Harris for the keys to the White House.

I stated that 'it doesn't completely mean much at this stage' in the previous paragraph because - in the last two elections - I've seen the 'underdog', if you can call them that, move into favouritism on the night and then go on to win.

Hillary Clinton was the fave in 2016 and the then President - Donald Trump - was in that position leading into the election of 2020.

Both failed to win.

Just the other night, Kamala Harris' odds moved into favouritism. At that point, I noticed a sports betting radio host proclaim that Harris was a lock to end up winning. The presenter exclaimed that he was a 'vet' of political betting and implied that 'the books know who's going to win'.

The past two elections prove they don't. Not yet, anyway. The self-professed 'vet' would know that.

If he was a veteran at this thing.

As for me? I'm not a veteran at this thing yet I have seen victories come from seeming jaws of defeat. ON. THE. NIGHT.

No sooner.

Monday, November 04, 2024

Yet Another Scam Evri Email

I received another scam email claiming to be from Evri yesterday.

In the mail, the fake Evri claims that my delivery driver, and I quote, 'Oliver, Will Turner' could not locate my address and that my parcel has been redirected to the nearest Evri warehouse.

Think about it - they don't have a physical address, but happen to have my email address. Tell me where this makes sense.

Anyway, with the fake Evri telling me the fake Evri driver has taken the fake parcel to a fake Evri warehouse, I am then expected to click on a link which will, I am sure, send me to a fake Evri page where they expect me to give them my REAL address and REAL payment information.

Here's a snap I took of the email so you can see how it looks like. If you've happened to stumble upon this blog post after typing in the delivery driver name, you know what to do - ignore the email and delete.

Scam EVRI Email

Sunday, November 03, 2024

Primetime?

The Indianapolis Colts and Minnesota Vikings will compete against each other on Sunday Night Football tonight.

This is a fixture which was originally scheduled for the 6PM (GMT) slot, so I would have been following along on NFL RedZone or on Sky Sports NFL (if the channel had selected to air the entire game). Instead, it has been flexed into Sunday Night Football while Jacksonville vs Philadelphia has been moved into the 9:05PM (GMT) slot.

As a Colts fan, I am contemplating staying up to watch the game live. If I recall correctly, the Colts didn't have any primetime games when the 2024 schedule was released. This could be the only time this season I  get to watch the Colts play in primetime.

Unless they go deep into the playoffs, of course.

Tonight's choice might have to be a game time decision. As of right now, I'm 50-50. 

Saturday, November 02, 2024

Remembering The Good Night At The Office

Today, or rather the early hours of this morning, was the tenth anniversary of what I consider my most favourite horse betting win from what is my favourite horse racing meeting (Cheltenham is a very close second).

It was the 2014 Breeders Cup. The second day (or night, for me). I had placed five horses in a Super Yankee and I had three winners at odds of 8/1, 14/1 and 16/1.

I gambled 15p a line, so the total bet amounted to £7.80. The return was £443.48.

It was a crazy night. However, the one which always sticks in my mind - of all races - is the one which lost. Artemis Agrotera was 3/1 in the Filly and Mare Sprint. Considering I had the horses each-way, I recall thinking to myself 'even a place would be nice' because I had just had the first winner of the night when Dayatthespa (8/1) secured the Filly and Mare Turf.

Once everything had finished, I logged into my betting account and showed my father my iPad (or laptop!) with the betting slip on the screen.

'You've doctored this!' he exclaimed thinking I was winding him up. It only took me a moment to tell him it was genuine. 

It wasn't just the second night of the 2014 Breeders Cup which saw me win on the horses. On the first night, I backed a couple of horses which reminded me of my uncle. I wrote about those wins on the anniversary of his death a few months after that.

As for the night two wins - every now and again, I check in with a tweet I posted at 12:32PM on November 2nd 2014. That would have been a few hours after the bet was settled. In it, I share the winning betting slip with the words 'Good night at the office'.


Good Night At The Office 2014

Friday, November 01, 2024

NFL Spreadsheet And Database Betting: Week 9 2024

Last week's wager in this NFL Spreadsheet and Database Betting series was a loss.

It wasn't just a regular loss. It was a gut-wrenching defeat because it was a play that stood out to me over the summer and was something I had put a pin in until it was time to place a bet.

The Over 47 punt on the Buffalo at Seattle fixture was graded as a loss immediately after the game finished 31-10 to the Bills. It was a touchdown, and PAT, short.

I have placed two wagers on this weekend's slate.

In the first, I have gone for the Indianapolis Colts to cover the +5.5 spread against the Minnesota Vikings on Sunday Night Football.

The Colts made the decision to bench Anthony Richardson in favour of Joe Flacco earlier this week. Considering how Richardson had been playing, that is an upgrade for the team, in my opinion.

My spreadsheet has both teams to tie. As noted over the years, a 'tie' in the spreadsheet indicates a play on the underdog. In this situation, it's pointing to Indianapolis.

The database likes the Colts historically when they meet the Vikes.

Indianapolis are 6-2 straight up and against the spread dating back to the mid-90s. They're 3-1 when the team is the designated underdogs against the Vikings.

Those results are for all games between the teams. When looking at only games when the Colts are the visitors, the database results shows them as 3-1 against the spread and 2-1 when defined as road dogs.

The second play is on the Dallas Cowboys versus Atlanta Falcons match to go under its total of fifty-two.

My spreadsheet has the game to fall four points under the total, so I checked the database to see if anything stood out. 

Overall, the Over-Under is 6-7, so there's not much to draw from that other than the Under gets a slight edge. However, if only considering games played with Atlanta as the home side, then the Under has struck on five out of six meetings.

As of today's post, the spreadsheet and database series is 8-6 after eight weeks. It has gone 4-3 in pointspread plays and is also 4-3 in gambling on the totals.

NFL Betting 2024 After Week 8

Thursday, October 31, 2024

A Monster In The Closet Revisit

Over the summer, I decided to introduce my youngest nephew to a horror film I watched back in the day.

It must have been 1988 or sometime in 1989 when my cousin and I visited the local video rental shop. We did that a lot. I wrote about watching Way of the Dragon on one of those trips. Anyway, another film from that period in time was Monster in the Closet.

Monster in the Closet


Even though we must have rented it once, I can vividly recall viewing the film at least twice before taking it back to the shop.

And yes, we were kind enough to rewind the tape before doing so.

The movie is about a, well - the title speaks for itself: a monster which comes out of closets to kill its prey. 

Monster in the Closet

Monster in the Closet is a campy film. I kind of had that figured out back in the 80s. Over the years, after learning about the concept of 'product placement', I also realised that the movie advertised Nestle Crunch bars. A lot.

Every single time I've ever seen a Nestle Crunch bar - since '88 or '89 - I have ALWAYS thought back to watching Monster in the Closet. So - to anyone associated with that film - I think it's fair to say your product placement worked!

It was fun to revisit this film after so many years away. You have to accept it is what it is and go in with the lowest of expectations. Just expect to shake your head at some of the things you'll witness.

My nephew wasn't keen, though. I kept looking over at him as we watched. His look of contempt towards me, for dragging him along for my trip down Memory Lane, was quite hysterical.

I'm planning to make it up to him tonight for our annual Halloween movie nights. For 2024, the film we have chosen is The Lost Boys.

He hasn't seen The Lost Boys before, so I am looking forward to seeing if he likes it or not. I'm going to bet he'll love it. 

It's a safe bet to assume he'll prefer it over Monster in the Closet.

Not that there's anything wrong with that.

Wednesday, October 30, 2024

Another Annoying Article Courtesy Of The Mirror

Another poorly researched - or, at best: clickbait - article was on the Mirror website yesterday.

Melanie Pearson Character Leaving Neighbours Again

The article is about Neighbours and states that Lucinda Cowden - who plays Melanie Pearson - is leaving the soap.

Take a look at the headline. It implies that Cowden is departing after thirty-seven years on screen. It's absolute nonsense.

Cowden joined the series in 1987 and left in 1991. She made a brief return for the programme's twentieth anniversary in 2005 and then returned as a regular in 2021. 

The actress was not working on Neighbours for at least thirty years, so it's poor research to look at when Melanie debuted (1987) and conclude she has been in it for all that time.

Lucinda Cowden was gone for over thirty years when you do the calculations. Also factor in the year Neighbours was off-screen (which was during Cowden's second tenure as a regular).

With that little irk aside, I am sorry to see Lucinda Cowden 'axed'. I always like to see the characters from the earlier days of Neighbours. I suppose it's nostalgia more than anything.