The new NFL season will kick off in a little over an hour from when this post sees the light of day. So, as a very late preview, I thought I would share with you all of the season wagers I have in my wallets with the hope of cashing in (or not!) in early 2024.
Damar Hamlin to win Comeback Player of the Year
This was the first bet I placed on this season's NFL. I did so earlier this year when the odds for Hamlin to be the comeback player of 2023 were 7/4 with the betting website I am a customer of. Those odds have since tumbled right down into 1/4.
New York Jets to win the Super Bowl
I am hoping the trend of big-time quarterbacks jumping to new teams and winning the Super Bowl in their first season at the new club returns with Aaron Rodger now a member of Gang Green.
18/1 is the price I nabbed. I did a £5 each-way punt.
Indianapolis Colts to win the Super Bowl
This 150/1 gamble was done because I always have a small punt on the Colts every off-season. I also bet on Wales to win the 2022 World Cup, so that should point out that this is a 'fan bet' more than a serious one.
Anthony Richardson to Throw the Most Interceptions in the 2023 Season
If betting on the Colts was a 'fan bet', then me gambling on the team's new quarterback - Anthony Richardson - to throw the most interceptions out of any other QB in the league is my 'serious bet'.
There is a reason why I am betting against my favourite team's new quarterback.
Peyton Manning's first season in the league saw him get the most INTs. He went on to become a legend.
To get anywhere close to Manning, Richardson replicating 1998 would be a 'positive' start in my opinion.
Zeros to Heroes
I have done the annual Zeros to Heroes bet where I gamble on teams to win their division under a couple of conditions. I focus on teams that (1) finished last the previous year and (2) have hired a new head coach.
There are three teams that qualify for 2023. They are: Arizona, Denver and Houston.
I wrote more about Zeros to Heroes 2023 on May 14th.
Lindy's Exact Finishing Order Gambles
In previous years I have placed 'exact order' wagers using some of the American football yearbooks I buy during the summer. I have done the same thing this time, but have only used the finishing division order from the Lindy's Pro Football book for 2023.
I dislike a lot of the projections, but have still gambled on the order for a bit of fun to follow along during the season.
I have placed three multiples bets. They are:
1) A Lucky 15 on the order of the four divisions in the AFC (50p a line, so £7.50 spent)
2) A Lucky 15 on the order of the four divisions in the NFC (same staking as in the one for the AFC)
3) A Goliath bet - at 5p a line - using the order of all eight divisions in the league (total spend £12.35 for this bet)
Here are the orders I've bet on for each division.
NFC North: DET, MIN, GB, CHI
NFC East: PHI, DAL, NYG, WAS
NFC South: NO, ATL, CAR, TB
NFC West: SF, SEA, LAR, ARI
AFC North: BAL, CIN, CLE, PIT
AFC East: MIA, BUF, NE, NYJ
AFC South: JAX, HOU, IND, TEN
AFC West: KC, LAC, DEN, LV
In a few cases, the magazine has some teams tied. I remedied that by going with the order with the longer odds.
For example, the writers have the AFC South having Jacksonville first, Houston second (wow) and then Indianapolis and Tennessee tied for third. I chose Indianapolis to finish ahead of the Titans because the odds were better than having the order of Jacksonville, Houston, Tennessee and then Indianapolis.
My Own Exact Finishing Order Opinions
My friend talked me into doing two Lucky 15s with my own division finishing orders, so here goes. Just like with the ones I've done using Lindy's projections, I've gone for 50p a line on both.
Here are my picks for the divisions in the NFC:
And here are those for the AFC:
I'll take a look back at this post sometime in February and see how everything went.