The plan was to circle teams that (a) finished at the bottom of their divisions in 2018 and (b) hired a new head coach for 2019.
I would then bet on those franchises to win their division in 2019.
Four teams were eligible. They were:
Cincinnati to win the AFC North
NY Jets to win the AFC East
Tampa Bay to win the NFC South
Arizona to win the NFC West
The idea didn't work out as well as I had expected. The results were:
Cincinnati once again finished bottom of AFC North
NY Jets finished third in the AFC East
Tampa Bay also finished third in the NFC South
Arizona finished bottom of the NFC West
Now, I find myself wondering how to approach the 2020 season.
If I were to do the same thing for 2020, the teams that would qualify - per the two requirements of finishing bottom in 2019 and having a new head coach for 2020 - would be:
Washington to win the NFC East
Carolina to win the NFC South
Looking at the odds, the best prices I can find for Washington is 16/1 and - for Carolina - it's 22/1.
I was thinking about adding last year's teams to the two for the upcoming season, but realised that there would be an overlap with Tampa Bay and Carolina both being in the same division. Therefore, I've placed TWO separate small stakes Lucky 63s. One will include Carolina while the other will have Tampa Bay.
Here's how they look:
2020 Bet 1
Cincinnati to win the AFC North
NY Jets to win the AFC East
Tampa Bay to win the NFC South
Arizona to win the NFC West
Washington to win the NFC East
2020 Bet 2
Cincinnati to win the AFC North
NY Jets to win the AFC East
Tampa Bay to win the NFC South
Arizona to win the NFC West
Washington to win the NFC East
Due to betting restrictions, I was unable to place my bets with just one company. I had to place one elsewhere at slightly shorter odds. Still, I got the bets on ready for September.
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