Thursday, July 30, 2015

Season Handicap Betting 2015/16

It's finally here - the post you have been waiting for.

For the past few years, the season handicap betting blog posts have been getting a lot of traffic. It's mainly people looking around the Internet to find out how they work. If you're here for that very reason, you can follow this link. It'll give you an idea.

What I have been doing for the past few years is share with you a strategy I have devised to pick a team in the handicap markets for the four main leagues in the UK.

To make things a little bit easier for you - and especially for me - I'll paste what I have written in previous posts. There are the two systems. one approach is a Premier League team picker and the other is the 'RFO Method' where I select teams from the three other leagues. I'll start with the latter:


The RFO Method

The first thing I do is go back to a spreadsheet that I have been maintaining where I work out the average points a team gets per position in each league. For example, the team that has finished top of the Championship has done so with an average tally of 93 points recent years. 
I then pick up a copy of the Racing & Football Outlook on the Tuesday before the leagues kick-off and look at the leagues coverage. The newspaper predicts how each club will finish. I rank the teams in the order the RFO projects making sure to add both the average points and the handicap points. They are then ranked in order (highest to lowest) to get a projected handicap table.

Firstly, it's worth pointing out that the Racing & Football Outlook Leagues special is out a week earlier in 2015. If you want a copy, you have to purchase it before Monday as next week's issue (out August 4th) will contain the Premier League supplement.

Secondly, I have decided to make a change in regard to the Premier League method.

The New Premier League Method For 2015

Usually, I would bet blindly on the team that gained promotion to the Premier League by finishing second in the Championship. This method hasn't been great lately, so I'm trying a new approach for this season. 
The method I have now adopted is to put every team in the order the bookmakers have them on the 'Outright' winner markets. I then add the 'average position point' to each team. The handicap points are then put on top. Once this is done, I sort the field so we have the teams' predicted finishing points and season handicap points added together and ranked from high to low.

This Year's Season Handicap Projections

In the Premier League, the top four are:

1) Chelsea 88pts (0 handicap)
2) Stoke 86pts (+32)
3) Man City 85pts (+3)
4) Southampton 84pts (+26)

Chelsea do not get a head-start on the other selections, so I am reluctant to bet on them. Don't forget, I place each-way bets on these teams, so as long as the team I select is in the top four of the bookmaker's handicap table at the end of the season, the bet will pay out.

Stoke has been given thirty-two points. That's good enough for me!

The Championship's top four:

1) Middlesbrough 92pts (0)
2) Derby 86pts (0)
3) Hull 86pts (4)
4) Burnley 85pts (7)

The League One top four:

1) Sheffield Utd 94pts (0)
2) Wigan 90pts (3)
3) Millwall 88pts (6)
4) Barnsley 88pts (8)

As you can see, the system has picked Chelsea, Southampton and Sheffield United to win. All of these teams start with zero in their respective leagues. This is the first time I can recall that the favourites appear in three of the four season handicap projections. I have taken Sheffield Utd, but think it would be wise to take the four points with Hull City.

League Two:

1) Luton 92pts (4)
2) Cambridge 90pts (8)
3) Exeter 90pts (19)
4) Notts County 86pts (10)

I am going to take Luton. 

My Bets

1) Stoke +32
2) Hull +4
3) Sheffield Utd 0
4) Luton +4

I have to admit, I am not as confident as I usually get when placing these bets at the start of the year.

I have placed my bet with Bet365. The company is very good when it comes to bets like this. If you aren't a Bet365 Customer, you can join them via this special link.

If you're already with Bet365 but looking for the latest sports betting offers, you can find some over at TaylorKnowsBets.com.

Wednesday, July 29, 2015

Delay

I am sort of glad that the football seasons all start next weekend.

This week has been so hectic I have been unable to finish the season handicap spreadsheets and post my annual picks.

I have started, but real life has gotten in the way so I they're going to be delayed for at least another day. I aim to have them complete in time for tomorrow's post at the earliest. If I manage to finish them off sooner, I'll put up the post a few hours earlier for those hoping to follow the picks again for this season.

I promise I'll have them up soon.

Tuesday, July 28, 2015

Thoughts On The G1 Climax So Far

I have enjoyed watching New Japan Pro Wrestling's G1 Climax.

As mentioned last week, I signed up to watch every single event via the NJPW streaming service, New Japan World.

I caught the first two events on demand, but have watched the other three live.

Viewing it live is so much better. I am going to try my best to watch the remaining fourteen shows in the tournament that way.

It was a day off yesterday, so I had other things to catch up on. The next show is at 10:30am BST today.

If you are thinking about signing up for New Japan World, I really couldn't recommend it enough. It's absolutely brilliant and it's a breath of fresh air if you've been following World Wrestling Entertainment.

I have missed following Japanese wrestling. It's great to be back. I picked the best time of the year to do this.

Sign up, people!!

Monday, July 27, 2015

Another Costa Bet For 2015/16

I will be following the Premier League adventures of Chelsea's Diego Costa for another year.

If you recall - last season, I placed a £10 each-way bet on him to be the league's top goalscorer. The bet was done with Paddy Power Bookmakers.

As part of a special offer, Paddy Power gave me a £2 free bet every time he scored. I made back my investment after only a few free bets!

The firm is doing the same special this season, so I have had another punt on him.

Just have to hope he stays healthy this time. He suffered from injuries at the latter point of 2014/15.

Open a Paddy Power Account

Sunday, July 26, 2015

The Controversy Continues

This Hulk Hogan racism story might be getting bigger than it already is.

The news website TMZ has an exclusive video of Vince McMahon calling John Cena the N word from the Survivor Series ten years ago.

Yes, an 'EXCLUSIVE' that was aired on WWE TV in 2005 and has been viewable on YouTube for as long as that website has been around. But let's not let that get in the way of a story.

The problem here is the media is looking for anything racist to stir up more controversy.

If they keep digging, they'll find a lot of it.

Not sure what the end result is here, but if things continue this could be huge. Believe that.

Saturday, July 25, 2015

Hulk Hogan's Rant

I woke up yesterday morning to the news that Hulk Hogan has become public enemy number one with World Wrestling Entertainment.

The reports I read stated that his name had been removed from nearly every spot of World Wrestling Entertainment's website. His merchandise was also pulled.

Something big was brewing.

I was aware that Hogan was in the midst of legal proceedings against the company that sold his sex tape. I figured they found some dirt on him from that.

And I was sort of right.

The full story was released later in the day and it contained dialogue between Hogan and the woman in the tape where he said the 'N' word a number of times.

Like many other fans, Hulk Hogan was the guy who first drove me to pro wrestling but there is nothing that can be said right now that can defend what has been reported.

Friday, July 24, 2015

Testing My American Football Betting System On CFL Football : Week 5 2015

The FPT System went 5-3 in picks for week 4, so the overall record for the year now stands at 20-10.

This week's selections are:

Calgary @ Ottawa

Ottawa +5.5
Under 46.5

It has Calgary winning, but not covering.

Toronto @ BC Lions

Toronto +3
Over 53.5

It has Toronto winning straight up.

Winnipeg @ Edmonton

Edmonton -5.5
Over 51.5

Hamilton @ Saskatchewan

Hamilton +1
Over 55.5

The system has Hamilton winning by 6 and the game to go well over 55.5 points.

If you'd like to find out more about the FPT System, head over to FootballPointspread.tips.