Thursday, September 07, 2023

Predicting The TNF Week 1 Winners (2023)

NFL Thursday Night Football officially kicks off next week. However, on TV tonight is the season opener which will see the Super Bowl Champions - Kansas City - greet the Detroit Lions.

Even though it isn't a game broadcasted as 'Thursday Night Football', I always start the 'TNF Betting' posts in week one.

Not that it matters this week. I'll get to that in a moment.

To catch you all up ahead of this new season - my spreadsheet is still using the same calculations it has been running since I first introduced it on this blog. My database, which holds pointspread and totals results from previous seasons, now goes all the way back to 1995. That is something I have been working on in the off-season.

Now, onto tonight's game.

The spreadsheet has Kansas City to win by three points and for the total number of points to reach fifty-three.

For the latter, the line is currently set at 53. Therefore it's a certain No Play situation.

As for taking the Lions +5 - that too becomes a No Play (or in this case: a PASS) per the new approach I have applied from this season onwards.

As noted on October 13 last year, I feel the best way to incorporate both my spreadsheet and database is to only choose selections which have a strong history working in its favour.

Using this week's pointspread prediction of the Lions +5 as my example, here is what the database pulled up as it pertains their record against the Chiefs as underdogs.
  • 1-4 as underdogs dating back to the mid-90s
  • 0-2 as road underdogs
The only positive I can attempt to salvage from the database record is the fact that the only cover out of the 1-4 record is from their most recent meeting, which was during the 2019 season.

In that fixture, the Lions entered the game as +7 home dogs and covered despite losing 30-34.

NFL TNF Betting 2023 - Week 1

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