Thursday, January 05, 2023

TNF 2022 Projections: The Post-Mortem

NFL Thursday Betting Results For 2022

With the Thursday night games of NFL done for the season, today's post will serve as a post-mortem for the performance of my spreadsheet in picking the sides and totals of the games.

As you can see, the spreadsheet went 15-14 in 2022. To the average eye, it looks good because that is 51.7% in favour for the wins. However, in gambling, at least 55% is the target for profit.

To narrow it down, the spreadsheet went 8-6 (57.1%) in picking the sides and 7-8 (46.6%) with its recommended plays on the totals. Therefore, it performed best when it came to the point-spread. 

Looking ahead to the 2023 season, I plan to implement the new rule I have mentioned a few times this season.

I will continue to get the spreadsheet to project the winning side and total. I will then do what I have been doing recently and refer those results to the database I have created with the point-spread and totals records dating back through history and will then determine if any trends warrant - or rather: strengthen - the recommendations of the spreadsheet.

Should I be put off by history, I'll pass on the spreadsheet's recommended play.

Another thing I plan to do during the off-season is add more years to the database. I have been working on data from 2001 upwards. However, I aim to be able to refer to games dating back to 1995 when I resume these Thursday posts in September.

This isn't the end of the spreadsheet for the 2022 season, though.

I'm going to run the stats for every single playoff game starting with the wild card round next weekend.

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