Thursday, January 12, 2023

NFL Playoff Betting (2022 Season): Wild Card Round

As I promised a week ago, I intend to have my spreadsheet predict the outcome of every NFL playoff game and then compare what its two projections are for each match with historical data that I've collected from the 2001 season up to 2022.

In today's post, I cover this weekend's Wild Card round. I'll point out what the spreadsheet has selected for each game and then see whether anything in the database appeals to me. If something does take my fancy, I will bet on it. If nothing stands out, it'll simply be a pass.

I don't intend to bet anything under or above £1. As I say throughout the year - in my Thursday Night Football posts - I use the spreadsheet mainly for fun to see how well - or not well! - it performs each week.

Seattle @ San Francisco
The spreadsheet has the 49ers to win the game by five points and for the total amount of points to be forty-seven.

As of the time of writing, the bookmakers have San Francisco at -9.5. Therefore, the spreadsheet is suggesting that the 49ers will win straight up, but Seattle will cover as +9.5 underdogs.

It's worth noting that the Seahawks have been cast as underdogs in the two regular season meetings of 2022 and failed to cover. 

As for the total - it's 42.5. The Over went 0-2 in the meetings held in 2022.

Here are some notes dating back to 2001.

  • Seattle are 12-7 against the spread when they're underdogs
  • Seattle are 8-4 as road dogs against San Francisco
  • The Over-Under is 19-21-3 in all games
  • The Over-Under is 10-11 when the game is played in San Francisco's home venue
  • The last post-season meeting between the two teams was in 2013. The final score was 23-17 to Seattle (they were four-point favourites). The total was set at 40, so it was a Push
I'm Going With
Seattle +9.5

I like that the Seahawks are 63% against the spread as dogs and 67% as road underdogs.

Los Angeles Chargers @ Jacksonville
The bookmakers have the Chargers as two-point favourites. In contrast, my spreadsheet has the Jaguars to win by two.

The projection for the total is forty-six, therefore -with a line of 47.5 - the spreadsheet recommends the Under.

I've taken a look through the database results of Chargers versus Jaguars since 2001 and have noticed the following:
  • Jacksonville are 1-7 as underdogs against the Chargers. The one cover occurred in week 3 of the 2022 season when the Jags won straight up as +7.5 road dogs with a score of 38-10
  • The Jags are 1-4 as underdogs when playing at the Chargers' home ground
  • The Under is 2-11
  • The Under is 2-5 when the Chargers are hosting Jaguars
I'm Going With

I would have gladly taken the Jaguars if they were (a) given a field goal and (b) had I not looked at the database which is literally telling us to oppose both the side and total projection given out by the spreadsheet.

Miami @ Buffalo
The spreadsheet has the Bills to win by eight points and for the total amount of points to forty-seven, The lines currently have Buffalo favoured by thirteen and the total is 43.5.

Going with the spreadsheet's recommendation, to take Miami +13 and Over 43.5, I have looked over the database to try and make a case for either pick. 
  • The Dolphins are 7-13-3 as underdogs 
  • Dolphins are 1-4-2 when playing as road underdogs in these meetings
  • The Dolphins are 1-0-1 when cast as double digit underdogs
  • The Under is 24-17-2 in all meetings
  • The Under is 11-11-1 when the Bills are the designated home team
I'm Going With

NY Giants @ Minnesota
A tie is what the spreadsheet came up with when I put the stats in for the New York Giants' visit to Minnesota. With the tie projected, it suggests taking the Giants +3.

It predicts that there will be a total of forty-eight points. The line is set at 48. Therefore, there is no recommended play on the total.
  • The Giants are 6-5 as underdogs
  • The Giants are 6-4 as road underdogs  

I'm Going With
NY Giants +3

I like that the spreadsheet has this game close. The database giving a slight nod to the Giants mildly fills me with confidence.

Baltimore @ Cincinnati
The Bengals by nine points is what the spreadsheet has projected for their home game against their division rivals, the Baltimore Ravens. As of the time of writing, the bookmakers have Cincinnati favoured by eight-and-a-half points.

My spreadsheet has the total at forty-five. Therefore, it's suggesting the game will go Over 40.5.
  • Cincinnati are 7-4 as favourites since 2001
  • Cincinnati are 6-2 when cast as home favourites
  • The Over is 22-22 since 2001
  • The Over is 11-11 when the Bengals are the home team
I'm Going With
Cincinnati -8.5

 I am taking this one reluctantly. History is siding with the Bengals when they're the favourites.

Dallas @ Tampa Bay
The spreadsheet has the Cowboys to beat Tampa Bay by eight points and for the total to be forty-four.

Dallas are two-and-a-half point faves and the line has been set at 45.5. 

  • The Dallas Cowboys are 4-3-1 as favourites since 2001
  • The Cowboys are 2-1 as road favourites
  • The Under is 8-3-1 since 2001
  • The Under is 2-2-1 when Tampa are the home team
I'm Going With
Under 45.5

Another trepid pick because I am not sold on the 'Under in Tampa' angle. The overall at 8-3-1 gets the nod, though.

I will return to this series next week with a look at the results and what the projections are for the divisional round of fixtures.

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