For tonight's game - which will be played between the Washington Commanders and Chicago Bears - it projects that the Bears will win by two points and estimates that the total amount of points scored will be forty.
The Bears are one-point favourites with the oddsmakers. The bookies currently have the total set 38. Therefore, the spreadsheet is calling for the following:
As usual, I've taken a look over my database with results of every NFL game from 2001 up to last season. Here are some things I've noticed.
- The Bears have a Win-Loss record of 1-5 when playing Washington as favourites
- The Over-Under is 7-3 in the ten meetings covered
- The Bears are 0-4 as home favourites
- The Over-Under is 2-2 when the Bears are the home team
Some scary historical stats, if I say so myself.
If I were to choose just one or the other, I may opt to go for the Over. But then the 2-2 at Soldier Field is does not fill me with confidence.
Which leads me to a thought I have for the future of these TNF posts.
I believe the best way to incorporate both my database and spreadsheet results is to share what the results are and then do as I have been doing and sharing the database information. However, I will then decide whether history dictates whether a play is 'recommended' or not.
I am already six weeks into the year, so I don't want to appear to be changing the goalposts in-season. This change will take place from 2023. If, of course, I decide to continue with this annual series.