Thursday, October 13, 2022

Predicting The TNF Week 6 Winners (2022)

As I wrote over the weekend, my spreadsheet is now 5-3 in picking sides and totals for Thursday night NFL games. Of that win-loss ratio, it is 4-0 in picking the totals of the qualifying fixtures.

For tonight's game - which will be played between the Washington Commanders and Chicago Bears - it projects that the Bears will win by two points and estimates that the total amount of points scored will be forty.

The Bears are one-point favourites with the oddsmakers. The bookies currently have the total set 38. Therefore, the spreadsheet is calling for the following:

Recommended Plays
Chicago -1
Over 38

As usual, I've taken a look over my database with results of every NFL game from 2001 up to last season. Here are some things I've noticed.
  • The Bears have a Win-Loss record of 1-5 when playing Washington as favourites
  • The Over-Under is 7-3 in the ten meetings covered
  • The Bears are 0-4 as home favourites
  • The Over-Under is 2-2 when the Bears are the home team
Some scary historical stats, if I say so myself. 

If I were to choose just one or the other, I may opt to go for the Over. But then the 2-2 at Soldier Field is does not fill me with confidence. 

Which leads me to a thought I have for the future of these TNF posts.

I believe the best way to incorporate both my database and spreadsheet results is to share what the results are and then do as I have been doing and sharing the database information. However, I will then decide whether history dictates whether a play is 'recommended' or not. 

I am already six weeks into the year, so I don't want to appear to be changing the goalposts in-season. This change will take place from 2023. If, of course, I decide to continue with this annual series.

Thursday Night Football Betting Results After Week 5

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