Thursday, October 06, 2022

Predicting The TNF Week 5 Winners (2022)

My spreadsheet went 1-1 last week in picking the side and total in the Thursday Night Football game between the Miami Dolphins and Cincinnati Bengals. 

The Bengals' 27-15 win saw the Under hit below 47.5. However, the play on the Dolphins +3.5 failed.

This now places the win-loss, so far in 2022, at 4-3 with the totals going 3-0. 

In tonight's fixture, the Indianapolis Colts travel to Denver to play the Broncos. 

The spreadsheet has the game being won by the home team by a field goal. As of the time of writing, the bookmakers list the Broncos as three-point faves. Therefore, there is no recommended play on the side.

Thirty-one points is the projection for the total. With the line set at 42, it's pointing to the Under.

Recommended Play
Under 42

I have looked over my database of results from 2001 to 2021 to make a case for the under. Here are some of the notes I found.
  • Overall, the Under is 6-9-2
  • In regular season games, the Under is 5-7-2 (Not much of a difference)
  • When this game is played in Denver, the Under is 3-3-1
Tough to make a case for the play, isn't it?

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