Tuesday, August 05, 2014

Predicting The 2014/15 Season Handicap Betting Tables

It's that time of the year, folks. The post where I make a stab in the dark at how the season handicap tables for the the English leagues will turn out.

As per usual, I'll start by explaining how season handicap betting works and then introduce you to the two systems I use to get my numbers.

How Season Handicap Betting Works

Firstly, season handicap betting works like this - when you see the list at the bookmakers or on the website, each team is given a number. For example, if you place a bet on Arsenal at Bet365, you'll be getting them with a seven point head-start. In May, when all the games have been played, the seven points are added to the actual points the team has accrued for the entire season. In 2013/14, the Gunners finished with 79 points. If they were to do the same this year, they would end up with 86 points.

But that's just for Arsenal. You then have to add the handicap points of every team in the league to the actual points they scored. Once this is done, the teams are then ranked in order with the bookie paying out on the team that finishes with the most combined points.

In 2013/14, the top five looked like this:

  1. Liverpool (16) 100pts
  2. Everton (26) 98pts
  3. Crystal Palace (50) 95pts
  4. Southampton (34) 90pts
  5. Stoke (39) 89pts
  When I make my picks each year, I do it in two ways - I choose a Premier League team using a simple rule of thumb and then select teams from the remaining leagues with the help of the Racing & Football Outlook newspaper that comes out every Tuesday.

The Premier League Method

A number of years ago, I came up with the idea of picking the team that gained promotion to the Premier League as a runner-up. The method has been hit-or-miss, but I will continue with this approach and choose Burnley this time.

The RFO Method

The first thing I do is go back to a spreadsheet that I have been maintaining where I work out the average points a team gets per position in each league. For example, the team that has finished top of the Championship has done so with an average tally of 93 points recent years. 
I then pick up a copy of the Racing & Football Outlook on the Tuesday before the leagues kick-off and look at the leagues coverage. The newspaper predicts how each club will finish. I rank the teams in the order the RFO projects making sure to add both the average points and the handicap points. They are then ranked in order (highest to lowest) to get a projected handicap table.

Here Are The Teams I Am Betting On For 2014/15

Premier League: Burnley +50
Championship: Blackburn +12
League 1: Scunthorpe +19
League 2: Carlisle +10

As I have noted in the past - I have created this system as a fun way to select teams in the season handicap markets. I don't recommend placing huge wagers on the selections.

I hope you have enjoyed this post. If you have, please support equinoxx.info by sharing the post using the social networking links below. 

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Thanks for reading, and especially thanks to those who have followed these blog post over the years and continue to check in on them. 

As per usual, I'll return to the topic in January with a look at how things stand during the mid-season. I will then follow up at the close of the season with the complete tables.

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