Thursday, December 21, 2023

Predicting The TNF Winners (Week 16 2023)

I will be passing on recommending any plays for the Thursday Night Football game between the New Orleans Saints and the Los Angeles Rams.

As you'll see, in the table below, my spreadsheet has both teams equal. When that scenario comes up, it means to take the points with whichever team is the underdog.

Thursday Night Football - Week 16 2023

In tonight's case, the spreadsheet is pointing to the Saints as they're currently four-point underdogs.

I've taken a look at the database with the historical records of the meetings between the Saints and Rams dating back to the mid-1990s and there is nothing standing out to make me give New Orleans +4 as a recommended play.

Here's what I found.

  • The Saints are 12-16 straight up in all games
  • The Saints are 5-9 straight up when they are visiting the Rams
  • The Saints are also 12-16 against the spread in all games and 5-9 against the spread as the road team in these matches
  • The Saints are 7-9 when they're cast as the underdogs in these meetings
  • The Saints are 5-6 as road underdogs
The spreadsheet has the total number of points to be forty-four. As of the time of writing, the bookmakers' total is set at 46. Therefore, the call is to take the Under. However, history is slightly leaning against that play because:
  • The Under is 13-15 in all meetings since the mid-90s 
  • The Under is 6-8 whenever the game is played on the Rams' home turf
The spreadsheet and database shall remain at 3-3 for at least one more week with the close of the 2023 season very near.

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