Week 1 NFL Survivor Sinking And Look Ahead To Week 2

One of the new things I added to the this year's edition of Taylor's Pro Football Gambling Annual was to spotlight one team for each week of the 2026 NFL season as a 'Survivor Lean'.

Each selection was picked because it either had stats, trends or angles working in their favour for that particular week. The intent was to place that particular side up for consideration in survivor contests.

What's a survivor contest?

For those who don't know, a survivor contest is a season-long elimination competition in which participants select one team to win straight up each week. Once a team is picked, they cannot be used as a play later in the contest. If that team wins for their picker, the person continues to the subsequent week of games. If not, they're eliminated.

My survivor pick for Week 1

I chose the Los Angeles Chargers as the team to consider for Week 1. I also added it to the ESPN survivor game I entered ahead of the season.

My reasoning initially focused on the Chargers having a 6-4 (60%) overall straight up record over the Cardinals in games dating back to 1995. Narrowing it down, I pointed out the Chargers were 4-1 (80%) from five home games in this period.

That's not all.

Another stat I highlighted was that the Los Angles Chargers' head coach had a perfect record in winning Week 1 games as a HC.

Jim Harbaugh had gone 4-0 (100%) straight up in Week 1 games while in charge of the San Francisco 49ers between 2011 and 2014. He was also 2-0 (100%) straight up from his first couple of week one fixtures on the Chargers' sideline. 6-0 (100%) was a great stat. If I said so myself.

Harbaugh's run crashed out, along with my Survivor entry, yesterday following the Cardinals' 26-14 shocking win.

As well as winning outright, Arizona covered as closing +8.5 road dogs. They had been backed down from the +11.5 punters would have found them in Las Vegas following the release of the 2026 NFL schedule earlier this year.

A look at Las Vegas' elimination results following the Chargers loss

The LA Chargers' loss wiped out a lot of contestants from two marquee eliminator contests last night.

Circa Sports' survivor contest, which has a $1,000 buy-in, saw 7,585 players ousted because they sided with Harbaugh and his Chargers. That was 30.3% of the field.

As you'll see below, the Chargers were the second-best picked team from Week 1's entries. At the top of the list were the Jacksonville Jaguars. The 8,127 players who backed the Jags progress to Week 2 following the Florida-based team obliterating the Browns 34-10.

Circa also hosts a high roller elimination tournament which demands a $100,000 buy-in. The Los Angeles Chargers selection was the top pick in the Grandissimo, with 28 backers. The result wiped out 36.4% of the field.

Twenty-four players had Jacksonville. The ten who opted for the Lions must have wiped sweat from their brows after the Saints missed a two-point attempt in the closing play of overtime to give Detroit a 31-30 win.

The Week 2 survivor lean is also controversial

Ever since the opening game of the season, I had concerns over the second survivor lean in Taylor's Pro Football Gambling Annual.

That's because I have the Seattle Seahawks to win their Week 2 meeting with the... Cardinals!

Seattle's quarterback - Sam Darnold - was injured early in Wednesday's season kick off. Despite that, the Super Bowl Champions eked out a 13-10 victory over the Patriots. 

174 Circa Survivor players had Seattle to win.

What I wrote about the Seattle versus Arizona game for Week 2

Here's an extract from the chapter for Week 2 in Taylor's Pro Football Gambling Annual 2026.

...there’s a collision of betting strategies for Arizona’s home game against the Seattle Seahawks.

First – with the Cardinals playing the Super Bowl Champions, they automatically become the team to consider on that fact alone.

The ‘Beat the Champs’ chapter suggests that it would take a brave gambler to back Arizona under these conditions because they currently hold 2-7 (22%) straight up and 4-5 (44%) against the spread numbers from all games against current titleholders. Those numbers surprisingly worsen at home with 1-5 (17%) SU and 2-4 (33%) ATS.

Also working against the Cardinals is the schedule.

Arizona would have played at the Chargers, on Sunday afternoon, while the Seahawks had a four-day headstart due to playing the season opener on Wednesday 9^th September.

The Cardinals are already in a hole against the Seahawks before a ball is even kicked. That’s because Seattle swept them once more in 2025 moving the Seahawks to 9-0 (100%) straight up and 8-1 (89%) against the spread from the last nine meetings between these NFC West division rivals.

The Super Bowl Champions are currently 31-18-1 (62%) straight up and 27-21-2 (56%) ATS overall from the fifty times they’ve met since 1995. On the road against the Cardinals, Seattle are 15-9-1 (60%) straight up and 13-10-2 (57%) to the spread.

This current series has seen the Over-Under go 24-26 (52% to the Under). The O-U is 14-11 (56% to the Over) from Arizona.

SIDE NOTE: Seattle won 35-6, as nine-point favourites, when they last visited Arizona as Super Bowl Champions.

The game, from Week 16 of the 2014 regular season, went Over its total of 37.

Oddsmakers installed the Seahawks as ten-point favourites in their early lines for 2026. The total opened at 44.5.

Spread for Seattle @ Arizona in Week 2

With the benefit of Week 1's results, and everything mixed in, I am even more curious to see the result of the Cardinals versus Seahawks.

For what it's worth, the Cardinals are currently +4.5 home dogs for the visit from the Super Bowl winners. That's a huge drop from May's +10.

I'll be watching.

Taylor's Pro Football Gambling Annual 2026 can be ordered from these bookshops