Thursday, November 16, 2023

Predicting The TNF Winners (Week 11 2023)

My spreadsheet and database combination went 1-1 in picking a side and total in last week's Thursday Night Football game between the Carolina Panthers and Chicago Bears.

It was unsuccessful in its projection that the game's points total would go higher than the line of 38.5. It narrowly won on the pointspread by recommending a play on Carolina to cover as +3.5 underdogs in a game they lost 13-16.

Last week's results mean the overall win-loss for the recommended plays stand at 2-3 after ten weeks.

I may as well call that eleven weeks because there are no recommended plays for tonight's game between the Bengals and Ravens.

The spreadsheet has the game to have a total of forty-six points. That lands exactly where the bookmakers' line is, so it's an immediate pass.

As for the side - well, it has Baltimore winning by seven points. The pointspread line is current -3.5, so - that is what the spreadsheet recommends. However, there is nothing on the database which makes me lean on taking the favourite.

Here's what the database has shown for the history of this match-up since the 1995 season.
  • Ravens are 31-27 straight up in all games
  • Ravens are 19-9 straight up in games played in Baltimore
  • Ravens are 29-28-1 against the spread in all fixtures
  • Ravens are 14-13-1 against the spread in Baltimore
  • Ravens are 19-19-1 against the spread as favourites 
  • Ravens are 11-12-1 against the spread as home favourites
It's a pass for both.

For those interested, here is the totals research:
  • The Over-Under is 28-30 since 1995
  • The Over-Under is 11-17 when these fixtures have been played out in Baltimore
And here's one more note before I finish.
  • The last time the game had a total of 46 was two seasons ago. On that day, the Ravens lost straight up as six-point home favourites. However, the Over struck because the score was 41-17 to the Bengals
Pass! Pass!

Thursday Night Football Betting (Week 11 2023)

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