Wednesday, November 22, 2023

Predicting The TNF Winners (Week 12 2023)

Both my database and spreadsheet have no recommended plays for tomorrow's Thursday Night Football game between the San Francisco 49ers and Seattle Seahawks.

The spreadsheet has the 49ers to win by seven points. The betting line has the team listed as seven-point favourites, so that immediately offsets a play on San Fran.

As for the total - the spreadsheet projects forty-six points. With the line set at forty-three, the play would be to take the Over. However, a look at the history between the two teams, using a database which dates back to 1995, does not fill me with confidence in making the recommendation.

  • The Over is 21-21-3 in games played between the 49ers and Seahawks
  • The Over is 10-10-3 when this game is played in Seattle
The no play for week 12 leaves the spreadsheet at 2-3 for the 2023 season.

For those curious about the pointspread, here's what the database results show for the 49ers.
  • 49ers are 16-29 straight up in these meetings and are 6-17 straight up in Seattle
  • 49ers are 17-27-1 against the spread and 7-15-1 against the spread when playing in Seattle
  • 49ers are 8-12 as favourites in these fixtures and are 3-4 when playing as road favourites against the Seahawks

Thursday Night Football (Week 12 2023)

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