Thursday, September 28, 2023

Predicting The TNF Week 4 Winners (2023)

This is yet another week where I'll pass on giving out a pointspread or totals play on Thursday Night Football.

The most reluctant pass in my new approach to these posts so far.

My spreadsheet has the Green Bay Packers winning by a field goal at home against the Detroit Lions and for the total number of points to be forty-nine.

Those projections mean the spreadsheet is calling for plays on Green Bay +1.5 and Over 46. 

I have looked over the database of results between the Lions and Packers to make a case for either recommendation. Only one thing stood out to me.

The Packers are 38-18 Straight Up in all meetings dating back to the 1995 season. If I were to narrow it down to Packers having home field advantage, they are 24-4 Straight Up.

With the Packers home dogs, I looked at their record in that scenario against the Lions. And that is what led to me reaching a pass.

They are 1-2 against the spread in that role. To include all fixtures, the Packers are 3-9 overall. 

It seems like such a small thing to deter me, doesn't it? I also have factored in those Packers teams were run by Brett Favre and Aaron Rodgers in this period. Plus, they went up against some poor Lions teams over those years. 

The Over-Under is 28-27-1 overall and 14-14 in Green Bay, so there is nothing standing out to me.

It's a tough pass on the Packers +1.5, though. Rules are rules.

TNF 2023 Betting

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