It should go without saying that, even if it has a perfect Super Bowl (and even more - if I confirm the plays using the database), the spreadsheet is guaranteed to end with an unsuccessful post-season.
For this Sunday's big game, it projects a two-point win by the Philadelphia Eagles over the Chiefs and for a total amount of fifty points to be scored in the game.
With the bookmakers listing the Eagles at -1.5, the spreadsheet is recommending a play on the favourite and for the fixture to fall Under the line of 51.
I dislike both plays. And that's before I've taken a look at history.
I've fired up my database - with results dating back to the 2001 season - to see if I could make a strong case for the Eagles -1.5 and the Under. Here are some notes.
- The Eagles and Chiefs have met six times since 2001.
- The Eagles are 3-3 straight up
- The Eagles are 2-1 when cast as favourites
- The Under is 2-4
To start, this absolutely disregards a play on the total. The 2-1 for the Eagles, when playing as a favourite, is a positive. However, it isn't enough to make the play concrete.
Therefore, it's NO PLAY.
That means the spreadsheet will remain at 3-6 in post-season recommendations.