Tuesday, February 07, 2023

NFL Playoff Betting (2022 Season): Super Bowl LVII

Following the Cincinnati Bengals' loss to Kansas City a couple of weeks ago, my spreadsheet (and myself because I've cherry picked the recommended plays using my database) is now a disastrous 3-6 in picking sides and totals in the NFL playoffs for this year.

It should go without saying that, even if it has a perfect Super Bowl (and even more - if I confirm the plays using the database), the spreadsheet is guaranteed to end with an unsuccessful post-season.

For this Sunday's big game, it projects a two-point win by the Philadelphia Eagles over the Chiefs and for a total amount of fifty points to be scored in the game.

With the bookmakers listing the Eagles at -1.5, the spreadsheet is recommending a play on the favourite and for the fixture to fall Under the line of 51.

I dislike both plays. And that's before I've taken a look at history.

I've fired up my database - with results dating back to the 2001 season - to see if I could make a strong case for the Eagles -1.5 and the Under. Here are some notes.
  • The Eagles and Chiefs have met six times since 2001. 
  • The Eagles are 3-3 straight up 
  • The Eagles are 2-1 when cast as favourites
  • The Under is 2-4
To start, this absolutely disregards a play on the total. The 2-1 for the Eagles, when playing as a favourite, is a positive. However, it isn't enough to make the play concrete.

Therefore, it's NO PLAY.

That means the spreadsheet will remain at 3-6 in post-season recommendations.

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