Thursday, September 22, 2022

Predicting The TNF Week 3 Winners (2022)

On tonight's game of NFL Thursday Night Football, the Pittsburgh Steelers will visit division rivals: the Cleveland Browns.

I have put the stats into my NFL spreadsheet and it projects that the home team will win by two points and that the total amount of points scored in the game will be fifty.

Looking at the lines for the game, the spreadsheet is suggesting that the Steelers will cover as +4.5 underdogs and that the total will go over the line of 38.5.

Recommended Plays
Pittsburgh +4.5
Over 38.5

I have taken a look over the database of results from 2001 to 2021 at Cleveland. Here's what I've found.

  • The Steelers have been road dogs six times in Cleveland (since 2001) and covered the spread on four of those occasions
  • The Over-Under for all of the Pittsburgh .vs. Cleveland games in Cleveland leans heavily on the under because it is 7-14
  • I tried narrowing the O-U down to only look at games which had totals in their 30s. The database showed eight fixtures and, of those games, the Over struck five times
After starting off perfectly for the first Thursday game of the 2022 season, the spreadsheet went 0-1 last week when it recommended a play on the Kansas City Chiefs as four-point favourites. The Chiefs did not cover the spread in their 27-24 win over the Chargers.

NFL Thursday Night Football 2022 Betting Results

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