Thursday, September 08, 2022

Predicting The Thursday Night Week 1 2022 Winners

Against my better judgement, after a disastrous 2021 season, I am dusting off the NFL Thursday Night Football spreadsheet because the 2022 NFL season premieres tonight.

Tonight's game has the Super Bowl Champions - the Los Angeles Rams - greet the Buffalo Bills. I've put the stats into my spreadsheet and it has Buffalo winning by four points. The sheet predicts that there will be a total of fifty points scored in the game.

The current lines for the game have Buffalo as two-and-a-half point favourites and the totals line is set at fifty-two.

Therefore, the recommended plays are:

Buffalo -2.5
Under 52

Here are some arguments to make a case for and/or against the two picks referring to a point-spread and totals database I have created with information from 2001 to 2021.

  • The teams have met five times in those years. The Bills have been favoured in four of those five meetings and covered the spread three of the four times they were the designated faves
  • The only meeting in Los Angeles (one other home game for the Rams was when they were based in St. Louis, the rest were played in Buffalo) saw the Bills cover as -2.5 favourites 
  • The Under only struck once in those five games. This was also the game when the Rams covered the +3 spread with a straight up 15-12 win over the Bills.
  • It's worth noting that the totals lines were in their forties for those meetings. It was 40 in 2004, 43.5 in 2008, 42.5 in 2012, 41.5 in 2016 and 47 in 2020
As usual, I shall close this post with my 'I only do this for fun' warning. I rarely bet on Thursday games. I usually leave any betting to the weekend fixtures.

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