Thursday, September 30, 2021

Predicting The TNF Week 4 2021 Winner

My spreadsheet, even thought it started 2-0 after the first Thursday game of the NFL's 2021 season, has had a terrible fortnight finishing 0-2 with the recommended plays.

This obviously leaves the Win-Loss record for 2021 at 2-2.

I'm not comfortable with its results for tonight's game between the Jaguars and Bengals. 

The spreadsheet projects that Cincinnati will beat their visitors by nine points. It also predicts that there will be forty-six points scored in the game,

46 is the current bookmaker line in totals betting, so the spreadsheet is once again only giving out one play and that is to take the favourites.

Recommended Play
Cincinnati -7.5

I really dislike seeing the half-a-point whenever I bet on a favourite of more than 3 points. It's a good job I am 100% avoiding this game.

As for history, here's how the two teams have fared in their meetings since the 2001 season.

  • Bengals are 5-6 straight up
  • Bengals are 3-3 straight up when at home
  • Bengals are 2-1-1 as favourites against the spread
  • Bengals are 1-1-1 against the spread as home favourites
  • The Over/Under is 5-3-3 in those meetings
  • The Over/Under is 2-1-3 in Cincinnati 
There is nothing appealing on the database to make a case for taking the recommended play. Or to even go against the 'No Play' on the total and taking either the Over/Under.

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