Rivers .vs. The Seahawks

In yesterday's post, I wrote about Philip Rivers potentially coming out of retirement to sign with the Indianapolis Colts. Well, the quarterback needy Colts did indeed make the move. 

Rivers has re-joined the most recent NFL team he played for and is signed to the Colts' practice squad.

Being part of the practice squad currently means Rivers, who will be on the upcoming Hall of Fame ballot because his career ended five years ago, will remain eligible for Canton consideration. However, should the team promote him to the main roster, the Hall of Fame wait resets.

The elephant in the room is this - if Rivers had no intention of playing, he wouldn't be doing what he's doing. 

Likewise, if the Colts didn't feel they were in a desperate enough position, they wouldn't be gambling on a forty-four year old high school coaching grandfather.

To be fair, this isn't accurate. Rivers should really be on the sofa wearing Chargers merch

With a trip to Seattle next up on the Colts schedule, I've taken a look at Philip Rivers' record against the Seahawks. You know, just to take this database of mine out for a spin. 

On paper, it looks.. Okay, I suppose.

Philip Rivers played against the Seahawks four times during his career with all of those fixtures being as a Charger. From those four games, the Chargers are 3-1 straight up.

For the gamblers out there, I've looked at his against the spread numbers as well. The Rivers-led Chargers went 2-2 ATS.

Three of those ties were on the road, which is the scenario Rivers and the Colts will be in on Sunday (if he is promoted to the main roster). From those games, Rivers is 2-1 straight up but 1-2 to the spread.

The only time Rivers was part of an underdog side against the Seahawks was in 2014. Then, as +5 home dogs, the Chargers upset their visitors 30-21.

Indianapolis, potentially Rivers, are currently +13.5 road dogs for the trip.

A look at Taylor's Pro Football Gambling Annual for the Colts' history against the Seahawks within the past thirty years doesn't look appealing for Indy fans like myself.

The Seahawks are 5-3 straight up overall from those games. They've gone 3-1 straight up as hosts. From a betting perspective, the Colts are 4-4 overall and 2-2 in Seattle. They're 1-2 against the spread as road dogs.

If I considered Rivers' numbers against the Seahawks as 'Okay', then I have to be fair and state that the Colts record against the Seahawks is not okay.

Is Washington At Minnesota A Trap Game?

One of the the things I dislike, when it comes to reading about sports betting, is when certain writers consider their predictions to be unbeatable. They use the term 'lock'. It bugs me.

Even when it comes to betting on professional wrestling - on the occasions when I've had high expectations on a result coming my way, I've never uttered, or typed, L-O-C-K.

There is no such thing as a lock when it comes to wagering.

I'll die on that hill.

Another term I dislike using, but not as strongly, is 'trap game'.

With that said, there's an NFL game on today's board which could - at worst - be an exception to my rule. At best, it has potential to be a convincer.

The 3-9 Washington Commanders are -1.5 favourites for their trip to the 4-8 Minnesota Vikings. Both, as you can see by their records, are in the midst of poor seasons. The Vikings went so far as to acknowledge that fact by allowing one of their top players - wide receiver, Adam Thielen - to depart the team and head off to one which would give him a better chance of winning a Super Bowl before he retires in 2026.

Thielen was picked up by the Pittsburgh Steelers, but that's a side note. Let's get back to the Commanders and the Vikings.

Upon looking at the lines, I thought to myself 'the Commanders are too short here'. In my opinion, they should be at least three-point faves. And that's despite their record for 2025.

The more I looked into it, the more I am leaning to this potentially being the game that makes me start believing in the concept of trap games. Cheap plug time - I reread what I wrote about this game in Taylor's Pro Football Gambling Annual 2025.

The takeaway: history is on Minnesota's side. 

Since 1995, the Vikings are 9-5 straight up and 7-5-1 against the spread out of fourteen games. Those numbers look better on paper when it's narrowed down to only the fixtures played with the Vikings at home. For those qualifying games, the home team owns 4-1 straight up and 3-2 against the spread records. They've gone a perfect 2-0 from the two occasions they were, like today, categorised as home underdogs.

It's a case of present day telling us to go with the Commanders, but the history books pointing the opposite way.

Now that I've laid that all out, I have something important to close with.

I'm not betting on this game. It could be a trap.

'Off A Bye On Monday Night' 2025 Review

Something I pointed out in my book, Taylor's Pro Football Gambling Annual 2025, had its last eligible play for the year last night. It's now time to see how the betting angle panned out.

As you'll see, in the exert below, I singled out six NFL teams that were scheduled to return from their respective bye weeks and play on Monday Night Football. I reasoned that handicappers would consider backing them because the teams would have an advantage of a week and a day of rest and preparation contrasted with their opposition.

Of those six highlighted teams, five won and covered their spreads.

In week six, Atlanta (+4) and Chicago (+5.5) beat Buffalo 24-14 and Washington 25-24 respectively. Arizona, as +3 road dogs against Dallas in week nine, won 27-17. 

Last week, the Philadelphia Eagles had a 10-7 result, as one-point favourites, against the Green Bay Packers.

The betting angle was capped off by the Dallas Cowboys' 33-16 victory in Las Vegas against the Raiders. The visitors closed as -3.5 favourites.

Houston, who lost to the Seahawks with a score of 19-27, was a losing play in week seven. They had been priced up as -3 faves.

The 5-1 record for those eligible games went straight up and against the spread giving the situational plays an 83.3% strike-rate for 2025.

As it currently stands, the against the spread numbers for all teams coming off their bye weeks is 11-7. So, that's hitting at 61% with three more weeks of teams returning from byes still to go.

In this upcoming week, the Indianapolis Colts - who last played a week ten fixture in Berlin - will travel to Kansas City to take on the Chiefs. The Colts are presently listed as +3 underdogs.

The other week 12 returners are the New Orleans Saints who will welcome an Atlanta Falcons team that has been forced to replace their injured quarterback - Michael Penix Jr. - with their former starter, Kirk Cousins, following Penix's potentially season-ending leg injury suffered during Sunday's 27-30 loss to the Carolina Panthers.

Response To One Star

For some reason, my head told me to check out the Amazon US page for my book - Taylor's Pro Football Gambling Annual 2025 - late last night.

I did so.

I noticed that the first, and only, review from the USA isn't positive whatsoever.

Written almost a week ago, the reviewer gave the book one star with the headline stating it's 'not worth the cost' and then proceeded to write 'if ALL you want is head-to-head history, then fine, but as something that helps with betting forget it'.

First - the gentleman is welcome to his opinion. The book is evidently not for him.

However, I wish I could have the right to reply because I would point out that, even though head-to-head history is a huge part of the content (because I obviously use the data between 1995-2024 to highlight how previous meetings have fared), stating that it is 'all' there is would be inaccurate.

Each game week focuses on certain betting angles. Those same ideas are also spotlighted with their own chapter in the book.

The back of the guide states that its intent is to 'put the power of data-driven betting decisions in your hands'. As well as that, my introduction also points out that the book is a reference to help bettors reach their own conclusions before making bets.

A tool. That would be the best way to describe the book. 

As for the cost - I had set the price as low as I felt was reasonable for the time and research I spent putting the book together. During the planning stages, I had two prices suggested to me - £19.99 and £24.99 - but I felt those numbers were too high and opted to go with £14.99. 

The US price is $18.99 which, as of the time of writing, is £14.12. I wanted to keep them in as close a range as I could. 

That's all I can state on this matter.

Another Betting Angle Starts Off Perfectly And More

I was keen to see how the two Monday Night Football results from yesterday would play out. Both ended up as I hoped.

From a point-spread perspective, that is.

As highlighted in one of the chapters of my book - Taylor's Pro Football Gambling Annual 2025 - this season will see six teams return from bye weeks to play in a Monday Night Football fixture.

Last night's games saw the first eligible selections for '25 in the form of the Atlanta Falcons and Chicago Bears.

In the case of Atlanta, their last week and a day was spent preparing for a visit from the Buffalo Bills. The Falcons were priced up as underdogs for their home game. They did  more than cover the spread. They won outright with a score of 24-14.

The second MNF offering of the night saw the Bears as road dogs for their trip to Washington. A game-winning field goal ended the meeting with a 25-24 score for the visitors.

I played both selections in a betting contest. At the time the entry was placed, the Falcons were +4 and Chicago were +4.5. However, by game time, the Bears had risen to +5.5.

The other selections I had in the contest went 2-1 with winning plays on Pittsburgh -5.5, who won 23-9 against the Browns, and Miami managing to cover the four-point spread despite losing 27-29 at home against the Chargers.

The one in the week's 4-1 result was thanks, or rather no thanks!, to the Detroit Lions. I had them at +2.5 against Kansas City. 

The Chiefs won 30-17 as home faves.

Buy Taylor's Pro Football Gambling Annual 2025

Typos And Winning Covers

I noticed a mortifying typo in my book - Taylor's Pro Football Gambling Annual 2025 - when I was recently looking through the chapter for this week's NFL fixtures.

Instead of telling you what I wrote, I'll share with you a photo of the error.

I believe what I meant to state was 'San Francisco have a strong..' or 'San Francisco own a strong..' but, instead, it came out 'San Francisco ho...'

As a fan of west coast rap during my childhood, I'm sure Sigmund Freud would have explained it was my subconscious from the past trying to work its way back. Gangsta style.

Or I just need to do a better job editing. The 'Kansas City Chefs', who appeared later in the chapter, would also agree.

With all that said, the writeup and table for last night's game, between the San Francisco Ho 49ers and Los Angles Rams made a strong case for backing the 49ers.

The stats read that the 49ers covered 69% of the times they were classified as road dogs against the Rams, so - liking the 49ers +7 - I added them as one of the five teams in a weekly against the spread contest I participate in.

I also took San Francisco straight up in the weekly pick 'em contest.

San Francisco won 26-23 in overtime. 

Buy Taylor's Pro Football Gambling Annual 2025

Adding Another Wrinkle To Packers At Dallas Recent History

The Green Bay Packers and Dallas Cowboys 40-40 Overtime tie on Sunday Night Football in week four of the 2025 NFL season added another wrinkle to something I wrote about in Taylor's Pro Football Gambling Annual.

In my preview for the game, I pointed out that the Cowboys had yet to beat the Packers at AT&T Stadium since the building became their new home in 2009.

The Packers entered Sunday's trip to Texas with 5-0 straight up and against the spread record as visitors against America's Team.

But, that wasn't all.

The Packers' Super Bowl XLV victory, a 31-25 score against the Pittsburgh Steelers on February 6th 2011, was also played on the field of Cowboys Stadium. Therefore, Green Bay were 6-0 straight up and against the spread in that building ahead of last night's kick off.

As we saw play out, the Packers kicked a game-tying field goal with one second left in OT. 

The result now places the Packers 6-0-1 straight up overall at Jerry World.

It also leaves the Cowboys still searching for what has become an elusive home win against the Packers despite covering the +6.5 spread moving them to 1-5 ATS since 2013.

The 40-40 scoreline was the second-best highest scoring tied game in NFL history. A 1964 fixture between the Raiders and the then-named Boston Patriots finished 43-43.

5-0-1

I am sitting at my PC, with my notepad next to me, getting my NFL picks ready for a few contests I play in and I couldn't help but be somewhat stunned at the fact that one of the angles I pointed out in Taylor's Pro Football Gambling Annual 2025 is on a relatively good run in the early part of this season.

The 'Played Monday' angle - in which you fade teams that played on Monday Night Football - has a win-loss record of 5-0-1 after two weeks of play. 

In week two, punters had to bet on Atlanta (+3.5) over Minnesota and take Detroit (-6.5) against Chicago. Both teams won and covered with respective scores of 22-6 and 52-21.

The second week of games had two played on Monday Night Football. Therefore, the four eligible teams for last week's fixtures were the New York Jets (+6.5) against the Buccaneers, Jacksonville (-1.5) against Houston, Washington (-3) over the Las Vegas Raiders and Denver (+3) opposing the Broncos.

Jacksonville won 17-10 against the Texans, Washington bested the Raiders with a score of 41-24 and, even though they lost 27-29 against Tampa Bay, the Jets covered the +6.5 spread.

The only blemish, if you can call it that, to the record is the push which came from Denver's 20-23 loss to the Chargers.

Other angles focused on in the annual are currently 4-4 and 2-2 so far in 2025. 

Buy a Copy of Taylor's Pro Football Gambling Annual 2025

All The 4s, Then Something More

It's 4:44PM (BST) and I've just realised I haven't written a post for today.

I don't have much to offer right now. The day has been quite dull, to be fair. There is NFL football on the horizon, though.

I'm looking forward to tonight's game between the Buffalo Bills and Miami Dolphins. I might jinx myself by writing the next sentence, but here goes:

I am seriously considering having Buffalo as my survivor pick for this week. 

In fact, I'm more than certain about it. 

As I pointed out in Taylor's Pro Football Gambling Annual 2025, the Bills have a decent home record against the Dolphins. Especially in the years my database covers (1995 to 2024). They're 24-7 straight up.

The Dolphins are 0-2 while the Bills are 2-0 after two games this season.

So, previous results - and current standings - side with the home team. 

My fingers are crossed.

Betting Angle Goes 2-0 In Week 1

The betting angles featured in Taylor's Pro Football Gambling Annual 2025 went a perfect 2-0 in week one of the NFL season.

I believe this could turn out to be the only opportunity I'll get to brag about all of the angles being unbeaten because the majority of them begin their runs in week two.

The angle which came in is the one called 'Beat the Champs' which focuses on how the current Super Bowl Champions, and their opponents, perform at certain points during the season.

Week one's suggestions called to fade the Eagles against the Cowboys (Dallas covered the +8 spread even though they lost 20-24) and for the Chargers to beat the spread opposing the Chiefs. Los Angeles did more than cover as +3 dogs. They won outright with a score of 27-21.

As noted, the rest of the betting angles I focus on fall into play from week two.

Check Out Taylor's Pro Football Gambling Annual 2025

One Night In, Getting Ready For Night 2

I watched last night's season opener between the Philadelphia Eagles and Dallas Cowboys when I woke up this morning.

The 24-20 win for Philadelphia wasn't the result I wanted. Kind of.

I had a feeling the Cowboys would pull off an upset, so had them as the first selection in the pick 'em contest I mentioned earlier this week. 

Yep - it has started off poorly. 

But - there was a positive from last night's result.

I am in a survivor contest in which players select teams against the spread. My first play for 2025 was on Dallas +7, so that one came in. 

All eyes are now on tonight's game from Brazil. 

When I wrote about the current history between the Chiefs and Chargers, for Taylor's Pro Football Gambling Annual 2025, I noticed the stats mildly favoured the former. However, this is a game I would shy away from betting on because something stands out to me.

Jim Harbaugh is 5-0 straight up as a head coach in season opening NFL games. He went 4-0 as HC at the 49ers and coached the Chargers to a 22-10 win over the Raiders in 2024.

The gambler in me would actually side with the Chargers for that stat alone. But, the history moves me to make the safer play: PASS.

The Opener

I don't have much to share in regards to dreams today. Unlike yesterday, I cannot recall Lassie trying to help me find my way home. I do know I dreamt about Oreo, though. The only reason why I know that is because I was woken up by him licking my forehead in the early hours of this morning.

'It's funny you woke me up because I was just dreaming about you!' I noted as I picked my head up before resting it back down. 

Anyway, that's how my day kind of started (even though I did fall back to sleep for a while).

Big day today. Or rather in the early hours of this morning for me.

The NFL regular season is finally here.

I suppose you're wondering why I am not doing the traditional Thursday post, in which I take a look at what my spreadsheet and database likes for the evening/early morning fixture. After considering it for the past few weeks, I've decided to rest those posts up for at least one season. 

The main reason behind the decision is because I don't know for sure whether I'll be using the spreadsheet to choose selections in 2025. My database, and also my book - Taylor's Pro Football Gambling Annual 2025 - should rightfully be what I focus on this season.

To be quite frank, the annual - and how it works out for myself and anyone who reads it - is one of the only things keeping my interest levels up so far.

Game days are going to be quite peculiar. I'm going to miss the banter I had with Vick on those Sundays. To be fair, there was always something American football related to discuss - or wind her up about! - whichever day of the week it was.

Speaking of which, if you didn't know: I have the Bills to win the Super Bowl. I'm going to casually follow them this year to see if my bet manages to get anywhere close to winning.

That's all from me for now. Expect A LOT more American football content over the next few days. 

New American Football UK TV Deals Signed

There have been some big American football UK TV news dropping over the past twenty-four hours.

A few minutes ago, I read Sky Sports announce it will 'show more (NFL) games than ever as part of a new three-year deal'. I also found out that DAZN has picked up the rights to air NCAA Football games to the UK audience.

Those are obviously big stories. However, the one that made me sit up the most was broken yesterday.

Five has renewed its deal to show NFL content. For the past few years, the channel aired Monday Night Football games. However, the new coverage seems bigger. 

Much bigger.

From next week, and every week during the 2025 season, Five will air a 6PM (UK) Sunday game on its main channel. Then, at 9PM, another fixture will be played on 5ACTION.

Here's where coverage of the 6PM game becomes intriguing.

According to the press release sent out yesterday, coverage will begin each Sunday at 5:30PM and will be hosted by Dermot O'Leary with Osi Umenyiora and Sam Quek alongside. A  'play along format' has been devised for the first game called 'NFL: Big Game Night.'

NFL: Big Game Night has been created as a way to 'appeal to a Sunday early-evening family audience'. It'll run alongside the 6PM fixture. During stops in play, '5 will keep going with fun and games - in the form of a 'game within a game'. It'll see teams of friends and family compete for prizes in games that, as the press release boasts, 'are fast, furious and fun.' Points can only be scored by the team whose team is in possession of the ball in the actual game.

Look - I'm not going to lie here - it seems very convoluted, but I will give it a watch because I am intrigued to see how it will play out. If the concept manages to attract new eyeballs to the NFL, then that's a plus. 

The 9PM game will be presented by Quek and Umenyiora and won't have the game show on the side. Special guests are also set to appear.

As well as those regular season games, 5 will also air the Super Bowl and International Series fixtures set for London and Dublin. There's also 'Thanksgiving Day specials' and three playoff games announced as part of this deal.

It certainly seems like 5 has picked up a decent deal for NFL fans on these shores. I'm excited.

Do you bet on NFL games? If so - check out Taylor's Pro Football Gambling Annual 2025 

Another 30 Year Anniversary And Some News

With a bit of working out, I've reached the conclusion that today is the thirtieth anniversary of when I bought my first-ever American football season preview guide.

To cut a long story short, I was heading home from a fortnight away with my relatives. I had spent the second of the two weeks in west Wales with my cousin and - for the journey home - I stopped off at a shop to buy a magazine to read.

There either wasn't any wrestling mags on the shelves or I already owned them. Therefore, I reached out for...

Lindy's Pro Football 1995 Preview.

That was the gateway to publications which broke down the upcoming NFL seasons. Thankfully, over the years - thanks to the Internet - I have been able to sample other yearbooks. 

Lindy's will always have a special place in my memories, though. 

Considering this is a post about my introduction to NFL previews, I think it's the most appropriate moment to finally share with you some news I had been teasing earlier this year.

Anyone who knows me well should know I love football preview guides (as you can see above, I hope) and betting on NFL.

Well, I thought I'd combine those two passions.

I have written, and published, Taylor's Pro Football Gambling Annual 2025. It's a book which breaks down every single regular season game of the upcoming 2025 NFL season. I do so looking at previous histories between each game from a betting perspective using the database I have often mentioned on this very blog over the past few years.

The book is a labour of love for me. I have used the database for the past five years (as regular readers are bound to know), so I thought it would be unique to release a guide which looked at each game individually, and - most importantly: with a view for the bettor.

And you know what brings it back to the thirty year anniversary? My database samples all date back to the 1995 season.

I will be using the book throughout the 2025 season. I hope you can join me for the ride.

Physical copies are only available from Amazon but there is an eBook edition which can be found across a lot of other providers.

Most of the sellers are listed on this list: https://books2read.com/taylors2025

Season Handicap Betting 2025/26

It's that time of the year again. Yep - the annual post where I share with you the season handicap bets I've placed for the upcoming league year.

As per usual, I advise to read previous posts about My Season Handicap Betting Escapades to get a better understanding of what these wagers are and the main methods I use to generate my picks.

For this year's attempt, I have asked Microsoft's AI assistant - Copilot - to come up with its predicted tables for the Premier League all the way down to League 2. I then do what I've always done each year and apply the average points per that position to each team and then head over to a betting website and add the handicap points to each team.

Once that's done, I sort each spreadsheet table to create my own league rankings. Here's how it went for the 2025/26 edition.

Premier League

The AI assistant is predicting back-to-back title wins for Liverpool in the Premier League. As you'll see below, they're at the top of Copilot's table followed by Manchester City, Arsenal and Aston Villa.

Over twenty seasons, the top position in the league has done so with an average of eighty-nine points. Therefore, Liverpool will be situated in my season handicap table with 88 points. They will not have any additional points added to that number because the bookies are given them a +0 head-start.

The team which sits atop the predicted season handicap table for the 2025/26 Premier League Season is Brentford. 

Copilot has The Bees finishing seventh in the league. That position has an average of fifty-nine points. The bookies have given a +38 head-start, so - added together - that makes 97.

I'm unsure whether I'll accept taking Brentford +38.  That's because I find the next option, Aston Villa +22, more appealing.

As you'll see above, Copilot is projecting a fourth-place finish for Villa. That position earns an average of seventy points. Add on top the +22 and that gives 92 on the season handicap table. 

I've convinced myself - Aston Villa +22 will be added to my bet.

Championship

Copilot projects Southampton as potential winners of the Championship. They're followed by Sheffield United, Ipswich Town and Leicester.

With everything tallied up, my spreadsheet also has Southampton at the top of its table thanks to the +6 head-start offered by the bookmakers. 

That is a selection I am willing to take because my method is projecting a 100 point finish when all advantages and actual points are counted on the final day.

League 1

Luton Town will be declared League 1 winners of the 2025/26 season. If Copilot's predicted finish is accurate that is.

As you can see, the AI assistant has Luton ranked first. They're followed by Cardiff City, Plymouth and Bolton. 

As you'll see below, with all of the handicap points added to the average position points, the four top teams remain in the same positions. 

Luton is receiving a +0 head-start, Cardiff is getting +5, Plymouth has +6 and Bolton Wanderers will start of 2025/26 with +6.

I'm going with my heart for this one. Cardiff +5! 

League 2

The League 2 projected table has MK Dons as the champions with an average league position score of 88 points. They're followed closely behind by Chesterfield (84), Notts County (82) and Bristol Rovers (79). 

With the season handicap points applied, Notts County jumps to the top with their +20 head-start. Chesterfield remains in second, Bristol Rovers also stalls at their position of third while MK Dons falls into fourth.

I'm going with the spreadsheet's projected finish and taking Notts County plus ten.

My Bets

So, to conclude,, here are the four selections I'm putting in a Lucky 15. 

1) Aston Villa +22 (Premier League)

2) Southampton +6 (Championship)

3) Cardiff City +5 (League 1)

4) Notts County +10 (League 2)

It wouldn't be a Season Handicap Betting annual post without closing with this message: these kinds of bets are a crapshoot. I do them for fun and nothing more. Something to simply have in the back pocket as the season is being played out. I never expect to come out of these wagers in profit. If I do, it's just a bonus!

Are you planning to bet on the upcoming NFL season? If so, you must check out this book!