Is Washington At Minnesota A Trap Game?

One of the the things I dislike, when it comes to reading about sports betting, is when certain writers consider their predictions to be unbeatable. They use the term 'lock'. It bugs me.

Even when it comes to betting on professional wrestling - on the occasions when I've had high expectations on a result coming my way, I've never uttered, or typed, L-O-C-K.

There is no such thing as a lock when it comes to wagering.

I'll die on that hill.

Another term I dislike using, but not as strongly, is 'trap game'.

With that said, there's an NFL game on today's board which could - at worst - be an exception to my rule. At best, it has potential to be a convincer.

The 3-9 Washington Commanders are -1.5 favourites for their trip to the 4-8 Minnesota Vikings. Both, as you can see by their records, are in the midst of poor seasons. The Vikings went so far as to acknowledge that fact by allowing one of their top players - wide receiver, Adam Thielen - to depart the team and head off to one which would give him a better chance of winning a Super Bowl before he retires in 2026.

Thielen was picked up by the Pittsburgh Steelers, but that's a side note. Let's get back to the Commanders and the Vikings.

Upon looking at the lines, I thought to myself 'the Commanders are too short here'. In my opinion, they should be at least three-point faves. And that's despite their record for 2025.

The more I looked into it, the more I am leaning to this potentially being the game that makes me start believing in the concept of trap games. Cheap plug time - I reread what I wrote about this game in Taylor's Pro Football Gambling Annual 2025.

The takeaway: history is on Minnesota's side. 

Since 1995, the Vikings are 9-5 straight up and 7-5-1 against the spread out of fourteen games. Those numbers look better on paper when it's narrowed down to only the fixtures played with the Vikings at home. For those qualifying games, the home team owns 4-1 straight up and 3-2 against the spread records. They've gone a perfect 2-0 from the two occasions they were, like today, categorised as home underdogs.

It's a case of present day telling us to go with the Commanders, but the history books pointing the opposite way.

Now that I've laid that all out, I have something important to close with.

I'm not betting on this game. It could be a trap.