Friday, January 31, 2025

NFL Spreadsheet And Database Betting 2024 Playoffs Edition: Super Bowl

My spreadsheet and database had yet another losing play when the gamble on Buffalo +1.5 to beat the Kanas City Chiefs in the AFC Conference Championship game failed to win.

The Chiefs were victorious with a 32-29 score. The result means the spreadsheet and database fell to 2-5 in the playoffs.

And that's where it shall end.

The reason why I am not using both the spreadsheet and database for picks on the Super Bowl is because there is nothing in the database which points to taking either a side or total in the big game.

For what it's worth, my spreadsheet has the Eagles to win by five points (thus ending any chance of a Kansas City Three-peat) and for the total number of points scored during the game to be forty-five.

Going by the current lines, the spreadsheet is suggesting plays on the Eagles as +1.5 underdogs and Under 49 in the totals market.

The database, which goes back to the mid-90s, has recorded nine games between the two teams. Philadelphia are 4-5 both straight up and against the spread in those fixtures. 

Philly are 2-3 when playing as underdogs against the Chiefs.

The only thing which could make a case for the Eagles +1.5 is that - in the three Super Bowl appearances in that time - they have gone 2-0 when they've been cast as the underdog.

The elephant in the room is the against the spread loss for the Eagles was the one when they faced the Chiefs - as favourites - a couple of years ago.

The Over-Under history between the Chiefs and Eagles is 6-3 to the Over, so that evidently does not bode well for the spreadsheet's recommended play on Under 49.

The spreadsheet and database series will return later this year for the 2025 season. I evidently have to make some decisions about how to make better use out of the combined projects by September.

No comments:

Post a Comment