Houston Texans @ Kansas City Chiefs
The Texans upset the Chargers over the weekend and have now booked themselves against the Super Bowl Champions who are looking for the three-peat.
My spreadsheet has the Chiefs to win the game by a very small margin. One point, in fact. The projection was surprising to me because I expected the Chiefs' column to have more points in contrast to their opponents'.
The line is Houston +8.5 but the database is not on board.
That's because it shows the Texans have a 5-10 straight up record against the Chiefs. They're 6-9 when factoring in any sort of spread. They're at 5-7 when they oppose the Chiefs as underdogs.
The Texans' role as an underdog improves slightly when they're playing on the road against the Chiefs. However, the 3-3 is not enough to make a case for the Texans.
By the way - of those fifteen games, two were played during the playoffs with Kansas City going 2-0 straight up and against the spread (2015 and 2019 seasons).
The spreadsheet has the game to have forty-three points. That's Over the bookmakers' current line of 41.5.
It appears as though the Over play is liked by the database.
The Over-Under is 10-5 (67% to the Over) in all games played between the two sides. The Over is also at 67% when only focusing on games played between the Texans and Chiefs in Kansas City as it is 4-2.
I've looked at the Over-Under in the aforementioned two playoff meetings and it is 1-1. However, the one which did go Over was a game played in Kansas City.
My play on Houston Texans @ Kansas City Chiefs: Over 41.5.
Washington Commanders @ Detroit Lions
Just like with the spreadsheet result for the previous game, I was surprised at what it projects for the Washington Commanders' visit to Detroit.
Just like with the spreadsheet result for the previous game, I was surprised at what it projects for the Washington Commanders' visit to Detroit.
The spreadsheet has the Lions to win by three points. Once again, it's calling for the underdog to cover, but not win straight up. In this case, it's Washington +9.5.
Nothing compels me to pick the Commanders' selection. They're 7-8 straight up in games against the Lions dating back to the mid-90s. They're also 7-8 against the spread. They're 3-4 when they've been cast as the underdogs against Detroit.
To punctuate just how much I am staying away from the Washington play, a look at the Commanders as visitors to Detroit should be more of a deterrent because the team is 2-7 both straight up and against the spread and is at 1-3 when playing as the road dogs.
The spreadsheet has the total to be fifty-five points. That's half-a-point below the actual line. Therefore, it's calling to go with Under 55.5.
I'm not compelled to take the Under because of how close it is.
For what it's worth, the Over-Under is 4-9-2 overall and 3-4-2 when the games have been played in Detroit. One of the pushes took place during the 1999 playoffs when Washington won 27-13 with a totals line of fifty.
Pass
Los Angeles Rams @ Philadelphia Eagles
The spreadsheet has the Philadelphia Eagles to beat the Rams by six points. That is spot on with the spread because bookmaking firms also have the Philly as six-point favourites.
That means a pass on a pointspread play. However, it's worth pointing out the results of the database for a matter of interest.
The Eagles are 12-4 straight up and 13-2-1 against the spread in games against the Rams dating back to the mid-90s. When they've been priced up as the favourites, the Eagles are 8-1 (89%).
Focusing only on fixtures played in the Eagles' backyard, the home side's record is 6-2 straight up and 6-1-1 against the spread and has won four out of five of those games when cast as the favourites.
There is one post-season game in the database. It's from the 2001 season which saw the Rams win 29-24 to claim the NFC Championship. They won the game, but lost with the spread at -10.5.
Forty-six total points is the projection from the spreadsheet. Therefore, it's suggesting a play on Over 43.5.
History does not like the Over. The database points to 6-8-2 Over-Under overall dating back to the mid-90s. It's 3-5 O-U in Philly.
Pass
Baltimore Ravens @ Buffalo Bills
My spreadsheet has the Buffalo Bills to beat the Baltimore Ravens by two points and for there to be a total of fifty-four points.
Unfortunately, I feel it best to pass on both the recommended selections of Buffalo +1 and Over 51.5.
What has turned me off the two plays are:
- The Bills are 5-7 straight up and 4-7-1 against the spread against the Ravens
- The Bills are 3-6 against the spread overall when playing the Ravens as underdogs
- The Over-Under is 2-10 overall
- The Over-Under is 0-4 in Buffalo
I do have a couple of positives for the Bills play, but they aren't enough to sway me to make the gamble. They are:
- Bills are 3-1 straight up and against the spread against the Ravens when they're the home team
- The Bills are 2-1 as home underdogs against the Ravens
Pass
So, after all that, I have only ONE play on this weekend's round. Even though it hasn't prompted me to make a lot of plays, I hope the information is of some use to others.
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