Friday, October 11, 2024

NFL Spreadsheet And Database Betting: Week 6 2024

After looking through my spreadsheets and database for the upcoming week of the NFL's 2024 season, I have opted to make a bold move and choose to pass on making any plays.

I've fancied a few results my spreadsheet has recommended and then, when I compared them with the database, I've been disheartened to see a contrast.

It's also gone the other way with me liking some things on the database only to notice that my spreadsheet is in disagreement.

So, for today's post, I'll share with you what my spreadsheet or database liked and what turned me off. None of these picks will be played because of the clashes between spreadsheet and database.

New York Jets +2.5 against Buffalo
With everything that has gone on with the Jets this week, I thought it would have been great to make a play on the Jets.
The team fired head coach, Robert Saleh, on Tuesday but can still end up taking top spot in the AFC East division by beating the Bills on Monday night.
As of right now, the Jets are +2.5 home underdogs. The database points out that the Jets are 17-13 against the spread when the Bills visit. However, they're 11-1 against the spread whenever they're positioned as home dogs against Buffalo. I thought that was a brilliant stat. The only thing (ie: the most important thing) which threw me off was the spreadsheet predicting the Bills will win by a field goal.
How annoying!

Dallas +3 against Detroit
My spreadsheet has the Cowboys and Lions to tie. In that situation, the play is to look at the team getting the points. Therefore, it's pointing to Dallas +3.
The Cowboys are 11-5 straight up against the Lions since 1995. They're also 8-2 whenever the game has been played with the Cowboys as the home team. However, in those meetings, the both teams are 5-5 each against the spread. On top of that, the Cowboys haven't played as underdogs in those fixtures.
That's evidently siding with a gamble on the Cowboys, right?
Well - here's what made things crash for me.
The Lions are returning from a bye week. They are 18-10-1 against the spread when coming off a week of rest. I thought I'd narrow it down somewhat and see how they perform coming off week 5 byes and the stat confirmed the pass. They're 4-1 (80%) in those situations.

The totals plays are also a letdown for me this week. The top two Overs plays - Chargers @ Broncos and Steelers @ Raiders - on my spreadsheets are not filling me with confidence because both of those games feature fixtures with questions over quarterbacks. 

I pass on the week with the record at 7-4 following last week's 1-1.

NFL Betting 2024

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