NFL Spreadsheet And Database Betting: Week 4 2024

Week three was crap for my NFL spreadsheet and database picks.

Of the three selections, it only had one winning pick. That was on the Green Bay Packers versus Tennessee Titans to go Over its total of 38. The final score was 30-14 to Green Bay.

As you can see above, the losing plays were on Miami +4.5 against Seattle (the final score was 24-3 to the Seahawks) and the Kansas City Chiefs @ Atlanta Flacons game score of 22-17 fell below the total of 46.5 when my spreadsheet and database thought there was a chance of it striking the Over.

Those results now moves my spreadsheet to 5-2 for the season.

I have two pointspread picks for this week's fixtures.

Baltimore Ravens -2.5 against Buffalo Bills
My spreadsheet  has the Baltimore Ravens to beat the Buffalo Bills by three points. So, even though the line is -2.5, that suits the spread.

Looking further, as favourites in these fixtures, the Ravens have a win-loss of 5-3 (63%) and then, if only considering fixtures when the Ravens are home faves, then that is 4-1 (80%).

Another thing working for the Ravens play - to a certain degree - is the fact that the Bills are coming off Monday Night Football. With that said, betting against teams with a shorter week is only 2-2 so far in 2024, hence me saying this angle works for Baltimore 'to a certain degree'.

Seattle Seahawks +3.5 against Detroit Lions

The spreadsheet has the Seattle Seahawks to come into Detroit and snatch a win by one point on Monday night. As +3.5 underdogs, I thought that was worth looking in to.

Dating back to the 1995 season, the database had twelve fixtures between these two sides. The Seahawks have won nine of them straight up (67%). They have been designated underdogs in five of those meetings and have covered four times (80%).

The 4-1 also applies to fixtures when Seattle are the road underdogs when playing Detroit. 

So, those are the two plays for this week's slate.

I had a look at the totals my spreadsheet has came up with and compared them to the database but nothing fills me with confidence. The one I carefully looked at, but decided to pass was on the Denver @ New York Jets game to go Over 39.5 because the spreadsheet projects a total of 41.

The thing which made me consider the play was the fact that, when Denver travels to play on the road against the Jets, the Over-Under is 5-1. That's the good part. When you look at the overall fixtures since '95, then the O-U is 7-9. 

Had the overall leaned the other way, I would have been more likely to consider the gamble. 

I have not seen last night's game yet, so cannot state whether the spreadsheet was correct. It had the Dallas Cowboys to win by six and the total to be 46. Therefore, it was recommending a pass on Dallas -6 and for the game to go Over 45.5.

I looked at the total play and, even though the O-U was slightly in favour of the Over with a record of 30-27-2 overall, it was 14-14-1 when the Giants are the home side.

You'll know whether that play turned out to be correct or not before I do. I won't know the score until I've finished watching the game this afternoon.