Last week's two wins came with the New Orleans Saints obliteration of the Dallas Cowboys and the Over striking in the game between the Raiders and Ravens.
There were a lot of people surprised with the Saints' 44-19 win against America's Team. I was evidently not one of them considering I thought the +6 was worth a gamble considering the spreadsheet had the visitors favoured to win outright and the historical data strengthened the result.
The totals play - on the Raiders @ Ravens to go Over 41.5 - didn't look like it was going to hit for most of the game. A flurry of touchdowns in the fourth quarter, ending the game 26-23 in favour of the Las Vegas side, sealed it.
It would be unrealistic of me to state that this good run will continue throughout the season. A perfect start is, well - perfect, but I do envision thing balancing out over time. I'm going to pick up losses. If the Thursday Night series from the past few years has proven, the spreadsheet and database is not without faults.
Speaking of TNF, my spreadsheet had the New York Jets to win against the Patriots last night. It had the home team to win by a touchdown and for there to be forty-five points scored in the game. Therefore, the selected plays were to take the Jets as 6.5 favourites and Over 39.5.
I did not run with the play on the Jets because the database pointed out that the Patriots were 5-2 overall as underdogs in games played against the Jets since 1995. That 71% number moved to 83% when only focusing on games played with the Pats as the road dogs to the Jets.
It would have been a pass on Gang Green. That would have been a mistake because they easily covered as faves by winning 24-3.
As you can see by the scoreline, had I recommended the 'Over' that would have been a losing call.
I chose to ignore the 'Over' because, even though the O-U line was 31-27-2 overall, it was 13-14-2 when the teams met with the Jets as the designated home side.
Now, onto this week's recommended plays.
Miami +4.5 against Seattle
Yes, I'm picking the team which lost its QB1 for an indefinite period of time.
Firstly, my spreadsheet has this game to be a TIE. That is after factoring in the loss of Tua Tagovailoa. As I've written in previous years: if a game is tied, you go with the team getting the points. In this case, it falls to Miami as the +4.5 underdogs.
The database has the Dolphins at 5-3 straight up and against the spread in all of the meetings between these two sides dating back to '95. To cut it down to only games when the Dolphins are categorised as the underdog, then the number is 3-1 (75%).
To narrow it down further, and focus only on games which sees Dolphins as the road team, then the straight up number is 2-1 and the against the spread win-loss is 3-0 with a perfect 2-0 for Miami as the underdogs.
Another couple of positives about taking the Dolphins is the fact that they played on Thursday of last week, so have had the benefit of extra time to prepare (I would have liked it even more if the quarterback situation was better, however) and face a team which played into overtime last week in the Seahawks.
The team which Seattle went into extra time with last week was New England. And we saw how they performed last night.
Green Bay @ Tennessee Over 38
I'm siding with a game with quarterback issues for my first totals play of the week.
My spreadsheet has this one to have a combined number of forty-seven. That's nine points higher than the line of 38.
I'd usually be reluctant to play (just like I was last week with the Packers going to Indianapolis with both the spreadsheet and database liking the Over yet the Under struck) but I feel there's an interesting wrinkle to this one.
With Jordan Love still looking to miss this game (even though a lot of reports are stating he MIGHT play), the Packers' second-string QB is Malik Willis. I point him out because he spent his first two years as a pro as a Tennessee Titan, so it's a return of sorts.
The database likes the Over. The O-U record is 7-1 overall and 2-1 when the teams have met in Nashville.
Kansas City @ Atlanta Over 46.5
My spreadsheet has this game, which sees the Super Bowl Champions travel to Atlanta, to have a total of forty-eight.
That's only 1.5 points more than the actual line of 46.5.
What is working in favour of the Over is that - since 1995 - the teams have met six times and the Over has managed to strike five times (83%). If we're to count only games when the Chiefs have visited Atlanta, then that's 100% to the Over because it's 3-0.
The One I've Passed On
The spreadsheet likes Minnesota to win by three points as a +2 home dog against the Houston Texans. History also likes the call because the Vikings are 5-0 straight up and against the spread in all meetings since 1995. To focus only on games played with the Vikings at home, then the number is 2-0. However, those games have seen Minnesota as the home favourite and not underdog. The only occasions when they've been designated as the dog have been away from Sunday's venue.
I considered the play, but opted to pass because I dislike the +2. Had it been +3, I would have gone for it.
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