The pointspread play narrowly won, however. The Colts lost the game by a score of 27-29. In this case, they won where it mattered.
As for the totals play - the Bills came back from behind to take the W closing out with a win of 34-28 thus seeing the Over 47 cash in.
I have looked over my spreadsheet results for the week 2 games and have compared those numbers with my database to seek out some bets to place for this week. However, before I do so, seeing as we're already one game into week two, I thought I'd point out how the spreadsheet and database worked for the Thursday Night game between the Bills and Dolphins.
My spreadsheet had the Bills to win by five clear points and for the game to have a total number of forty-nine.
At the time I created the spreadsheet for the game, the lines were Buffalo +2.5 and the total was set at 48.5.
I did not decide to play Buffalo plus the points because the database pointed out that in games between the Bills and Dolphins, with Miami as the home favourite, the fave has covered the spread 11-7 dating back to the 1995 season.
Expanding to all games between the Bills and Dolphins, the Dolphins - as faves - were 14-10 to the spread.
It was a pass on the spreadsheet recommendation because of the history.
Likewise, the database turned me off from punting on the game to go Over the total of 48.5 because - at the time of consideration - the Over-Under was 29-30-2 overall and 11-18-1 when Miami are the home side.
Therefore it was the case of the spreadsheet being right with the pointspread and wrong with the total and the database being wrong with the pointspread play but correct with suggesting the game could go Under 48 because the final score was 31-10 to the Bills.
For this week, my spreadsheet and database likes five selections. However, I have to trim down those picks to two or three per the rules of this series.
The two I have chosen are New Orleans +6 and Over 41.5 in the Las Vegas versus Baltimore game.
New Orleans +6 against Dallas
My spreadsheet has the Saints winning straight up by one-point. Therefore, it's leaning on taking the team with the six-point head-start.
The database, dating back to the '95 season, points out that the Saints have a straight up record of 10-4 against Dallas in all meetings that have transpired over those seasons. On top of that, as the match underdog in those fixtures, the Saints' record is 7-1. That's 88% when they're dogs to the Cowboys.
To narrow it down, to only games played as road dogs against the Saints, the team is 4-1 (80%) in that position.
Over 41.5 in Las Vegas @ Baltimore
The Baltimore Ravens are coming off a close loss to the Chiefs from the opening game of the season, so have the additional three days of rest working in their favour.
I would have considered taking Baltimore. However, they're currently -8.5 faves and the spreadsheet has them covering by four.
With that said, the spreadsheet has the total number of points accrued to be 44.
I have looked back at the history of these meetings since 1995 and the Over-Under is 8-5 (62% to 38%) overall. If we're to only consider games with Baltimore as the designated home team, we're looking at the Over striking on 71% of the occasions with a O-U record of 5-2.
For those interested, the plays I've chosen to pass on - for certain reasons - are: Seattle @ New England Over 38.5, Indianapolis @ Green Bay Over 41 (the Over-Under record is strong at 7-0 overall and 3-0 in Sunday's venue. However, Jordan Love being absent for the Packers has made me reluctantly pass on this totals play. If he wasn't injured, I genuinely would have stronger confidence in this play and I would have ran with it based on the 100% history since 1995) and Kansas City's match against the Bengals to go Under 47.5 (the O-U is 3-11 overall and 1-7 in KC. It's a simple case of my head telling me to be cautious and avoid).
Here's the table with the two plays for week two locked in. Good luck!
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