From today, I will be running a weekly post sharing the selections I have gambled on for the upcoming slate of games. I'll share what my spreadsheet has predicted and then point out what my database has pointed out and ultimately strengthened my opinion on the play.
For this week, I have TWO selections. One is a side and the other a total.
1) Indianapolis +3 against Houston
The Indianapolis Colts are playing at home against their division rivals. This might be rose-tinted glasses on my behalf, but I like the Colts getting the field goal advantage.
My spreadsheet has Indianapolis winning the game by four clear points, so the three-point cushion is obviously a nice edge to have.
I've looked at previous fixtures on my database. The Colts are 34-10-1 straight up in these meetings and, even though they're 23-20-2 against the spread in those games, they're 7-3-1 when positioned as underdogs - a situation they're in today.
That is technically a 70% record as underdogs against the Texans over the years they've played each other.
If I were to narrow it down to periods when the Colts were underdogs at home against Houston, the results show three instances. The home team has covered the spread in two of those three battles.
2) Arizona Cardinals @ Buffalo Bills OVER 47
I'll make this one short and sweet.
The spreadsheet has this game to have a total of 49 points. The database has six meetings recorded between the two teams and the Over has struck five times. That's 83%.
Narrowing it down to games where the Bills played as the home team, that brings the Over to 100% because it has hit twice out of two.
Even though I like the results from the queries about the Cardinals .vs. Bills history, there are a couple of things I've queried which makes me concerned. I'd like to share these with you for transparency.
The scariest stat which stood out occurred when I checked how the Buffalo Bills' totals performs in the first week of every season.
My database has 29 week one fixtures for the Bills and the Under has struck 20 times. That means the Over has a 31% record in Bills season openers.
I won't blame you if that deters you from the history of Cardinals/Bills games.
Arizona's season starts also leans for the Under albeit mildly with the Over-Under at 13-15 giving the Over a 46% record.
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I have placed small singles bets on both selections and have also placed them together in a double. I've bet mildly considering it's week one and waters need to be tested at this stage.
The plan is to return sometime next week with the results. I aim to keep track of my selections and their performances throughout the season.
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