Thursday, December 14, 2023

Predicting The TNF Winners (Week 15 2023)

The New England Patriots' straight-up win over the Pittsburgh Steelers - in last week's Thursday Night Football game - ended up seeing my spreadsheet and database balance things up to 3-3 in picking recommended Thursday Night Football plays during the 2023 regular season.

Unfortunately, this week I have been forced to going back to passing on the two plays given to me by the spreadsheet because there is nothing on the database which makes me confident in playing either a side or total.

For what it's worth, my spreadsheet has the Chargers to beat the Las Vegas Raiders by two points when they meet in Nevada. It also predicts a combined number of forty-two points scored in the game.

As of the time of writing, the bookmakers have the Chargers as three-point road dogs and the total set at thirty-four.

I immediately disliked the against the spread play because the Chargers will be fielding a second-string quarterback in Easton Stick following Justin Herbert's season-ending broken finger. 

There are two results which made me sit up and take notice, but - ultimately - I decided to pass due to the aforementioned situation.

The Chargers are 15-8 as dogs in these games and are 12-4 as road dogs.

Here are the results from my database's search for the results from the Chargers .vs. Raiders fixtures since the mid-1990s.

  • Chargers are 32-25 straight up and 15-13 straight up when visiting the Raiders
  • Chargers are 32-25 against the spread in all fixtures and 18-19 when on the road against the Raiders
  • As underdogs, the Chargers are 15-8 against the spread in all games and - if you were to narrow it down further - they're 12-4 as road dogs against the Raiders
  • The Over-Under is 21-36 in all games
  • The Over-Under is 15-13 in games played with the Raiders welcoming the Chargers

The underdog stat for the Chargers does stand out, but the situation makes me reluctant to make a play. Pass!

Week 15 TNF 2023

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