Thursday, November 09, 2023

Predicting The TNF Winners (Week 10 2023)

My spreadsheet and database now has a losing record in picking sides and totals for NFL games played on Thursday night.

That's because, in week nine, it recommended a play on the Over in the game between the Tennessee Titans and Pittsburgh Steelers.

The total was set at thirty-seven at the time of the post. The result fell to the Under following the Steelers' 20-16 victory.

Yes, it missed by two.

As for tonight's game, the spreadsheet has picked a tie between the Carolina Panthers and Chicago Bears. It also projects that the total number of points will be forty-four.

The database has given some positive feedback for plays on Carolina +3.5 and Over 38.5.

In regards to the point-spread, the Panthers are 6-4-1 against the spread in meetings between the Bears since '95 - the year the database goes back to and the year in which the Panthers began its life as an NFL franchise.

The against the spread record, if narrowed down to games only played in Chicago, looks even more impressive - from a percentage standpoint - because it is 4-2.

If I were to narrow it down and to focus only on games when the Panthers have been cast as the underdogs, then that takes the win-loss to 4-0. All four of those fixtures took place at Soldier Field.

It's worth noting with caution that, of those four results as underdog, three were of higher lines than tonight's +3.5.

In 1995, they were +13. In 2011 and 2012, the line was +7 to Carolina while - in 2005 - the road team came in as +2.5 dogs.

The Over-Under has a historical record of 6-4-1 for all meetings between the two teams. The percentage of 60% improves to 71% when focusing only on games played in Chi Town because those games are 5-2 to the Over.

Recommended Plays
Carolina +3.5
Over 38.5

Thursday Night Football Betting: Week 10 2023

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