Thursday, October 05, 2023

Predicting The TNF Week 5 Winners (2023)

After over a month of using my spreadsheet and database to see if both have mutual recommended plays on Thursday night NFL games, it looks like we finally have something.

My spreadsheet has projected that tonight's fixture will have the Washington Commanders beat the Chicago Bears by seven points and for the game to have forty-eight points.

Therefore, the spreadsheet is calling for Washington -6 and Over 44.5.

The database does have some results that like both plays.

Here's what stands out:

  • Washington 11-3 straight up in these meetings since 1995
  • Washington 5-2 straight up at home in these meetings
  • Washington also 11-3 against the spread in these meetings 
  • Washington 4-3 against the spread at home against the Bears (granted, this is not completely convincing)
  • The Over-Under is 8-6 (not completely a seller, but read on)
  • The Over-Under is 5-2 when Washington is the home team against the Bears
I can finally do this:

Recommended Plays
Washington -6
Over 44.5

With all that said, I do not plan on wagering on either selection. There are other games I am looking to bet on this weekend. 

NFL Thursday Night Football 2023 Betting

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