Friday, January 27, 2023

NFL Playoff Betting (2022 Season): Conference Championships

When I last published an NFL Playoff Betting post, ahead of last weekend's divisional round of games, my spreadsheet was 2-2 in picking sides and totals. However, it is now at an even worse 3-5 after picking up one win, out of four, over the weekend.

Things are not looking good at all. Especially when considering what you're about to read.

I've put the stats into the spreadsheet for the two Conference Championship games that will be played on Sunday. To show just how evenly matched they are - through the eyes of my spreadsheet - BOTH games were projected as ties.

In the case of a tie result, the spreadsheet is calling for plays on the underdogs of each game. Therefore, it is recommending a play on the San Francisco 49ers (+2.5) against the Philadelphia Eagles in the NFC Championship game and for Cincinnati (+1) over the Kansas City Chiefs in the AFC Championship contest.

As for the totals - the spreadsheet has both games to go Over because it predicts that the 49ers/Eagles game will have forty-eight points and the Bengals versus Chiefs to have fifty. 

The totals, as of the time of writing, are 46.5 and 47.5 respectively.

I have taken a look over the history of the two match-ups since 2001 and there is only ONE thing that has stood out. 

The Cincinnati Bengals are 9-3 straight up against the Chiefs and are 8-4 against the spread in those games.

Furthermore, they are 6-2 when playing as underdogs. However, to throw slight shade on those good results, the Bengals are 2-2 as road dogs in Kansas City.

I am only going to bet on Cincinnati +1 this weekend. 

With one game left to go, after this weekend's fixtures, my spreadsheet is certainly going to have a losing record in the playoffs. I am strictly sticking to my new rule of only betting when the spreadsheet and history look in sync.

Here are all of the ither results just to show you why I have shied away from anything else.

Cincinnati @ Kansas City (since 2001)
  • The Over is 3-8 in all of the meetings between the Bengals and Chiefs in this period
  • The Over is 1-5 in Kansas City 
San Francisco @ Philadelphia (since 2001)
  • The 49ers are 5-8 straight up against the Eagles
  • The 49ers are 5-8 against the spread when opposing the Eagles 
  • The 49ers are 2-5 as underdogs against Philadelphia
  • The 49ers are 2-3 as road dogs in Philly
  • The Over is 7-6 in all meetings between the two sides
  • The Over is 3-3 when Philadelphia is the home team

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