Sunday, January 05, 2020

The Worst Wild Card Picks

I placed all the stats into my spreadsheets for this weekend's wild card games in the NFL and I am totally underwhelmed with what it has suggested.

Here's what it has given me for all of the games.

Buffalo @ Houston
It has Buffalo winning by one point and the total amount of points in the game to be forty-three.
The bookie's line has Buffalo as +2.5 underdogs, so that's kind of okay, I suppose. However.. the game would have been played by the time this post sees the light of day.
 As for the total - well, that's forty-three so it's no play there.

Tennessee @ New England
The spreadsheet has the Patriots winning by four points. The line is New England -4.5, so it's recommending a play on the Titans +4.5. Not worth it, though. Not with the prediction that it'll win by half a point.
The projected total is 46 and the bookmaker's line is 45. Is it worth a gamble for a one-point difference? I think not.

Minnesota @ New Orleans
The calculations have New Orleans beating Minnesota by two points. Therefore, the play is Minnesota +8.
Fifty points is the total that my spreadsheet has predicted. This is once again close to the actual line as it's at 49.5 and definitely not worth considering for the sake of a half-point.

Seattle @ Philadelphia
My sheet has Philadelphia beating Seattle by a point and therefore is recommending a play on Philadelphia +1.5. However, I have a feeling that Seattle will win this game so I am reluctant to even consider betting on the Eagles!
With that said, my spreadsheet has the game to have a total of forty-nine points. The bookie's have the line set at 45 so I might consider going for the Over.

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