Madrid Plus One

I quite like Real Madrid to win with an Asian handicap bet this evening.

Here is something I wrote on the View From Vegas message board:

Dating back to the 2001/2 season, Barcelona has only won three times whilst their opponents have been victorious on six occasions. The draw has occurred five times.

As this is a handicap play with Madrid getting the goal head start, we're looking at a Barcelona (3) vs Draw/Madrid (11) in historical stats.

I'm also taking into account that Barcelona are at home. So - looking back at the recent history at the Nou Camp Stadium - the home team has won once, the draw has occurred four times and Real Madrid have walked away victors twice.

Once again, we're talking a big difference between Barcelona wins against the draw or Madrid as it stands at 1 vs 6.

Current form does, however, favour Barcelona. They have won seven out of their eight games so far this season. Madrid, on the other hand, have only won half of their games.

You also need to take into account that Real Madrid has just brought in a new manager, Juande Ramos.

This will be his first league game in charge of the side after taking over on Tuesday. He oversaw their 3-0 victory against Zenit St. Petersburg in the Champion's League last night and I think the new charge, an uplift in morale and a number of players keen to impress the new boss will see either a draw or an important away win in Barcelona.

I won't be putting it in my weekend bet as I am leaving that for tomorrow. I will be doing a single on it, though.