Thursday, September 10, 2020

NFL 2020 And Predicting The TNF Week 1 Winner

The NFL season kicks off tonight. For obvious reasons, I'm usually more excited about it than I am right now. However, I should be glad that the pandemic hasn't wiped out the entire season, so I should be kind of thankful.

As for 2020 - here are a few things I have on my mind ahead of kick off.
  • How well will Phil Rivers do as the Indianapolis Colts' new quarterback? My fingers are crossed
  • Is Tom Brady going to shine in Tampa? I don't think so..
  • How will the New England Patriots do now that they have moved on from Brady? I have no feeling either way but it's sure going to be interesting to see how this plays out 
  • What will become of the team formerly known as the Washington Redskins in a season it will play as the 'Washington Football Team'? I know I've had some crazy ideas in the past, but I can't shake off the feeling that the team will do well this year when it really should be on autopilot until it gets a new identity 
  • Speaking of teams that I have a feeling will make a turnaround - watch out for the Arizona Cardinals. The team hasn't had a winning season since 2015
  • How is my fantasy football team going to fare?!
  • There are more questions, but those are the ones I came up with straight away 

On Thursdays in recent seasons, I've published posts ahead of Thursday Night Football games in which I share what my spreadsheets have predicted. Here's what it has projected for tonight's game between the Super Bowl Champions - The Kansas City Chiefs - and the Houston Texans.

Kansas City by 3
Total 55

The total line of 55 is relatively close to what the bookmakers have it as it's currently at 54. The pointspread is at Kansas City -9. Therefore, the spreadsheet is recommending:

Houston +9
Over 54

Another thing I do each Thursday is end the post with the warning that I rarely wager on the Thursday Night Football game projections. It's certainly the case here as I would not bet on the totals line due to it being so close. 

With that said -  even though it has Houston losing, I am thinking about having a small gamble on the pointspread.

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