Wednesday, July 31, 2013

Predicting The Season Handicap Tables For 2013/14

In yesterday's post, I wrote about the methods I use to select which team to bet on in the Premier League Season Handicap betting market that is available to bet on before the season kicks off. Today, I'm going to share with you the way I go about picking a team in the Championship, League One and League Two.

I always purchase the Racing & Football Outlook newspaper on the Tuesday before the league seasons kick off because they have a supplement in there with projections for the upcoming season. They don't have a pullout as such these days. However, what I use to make my selections still is.

In the middle pages of this week's RFO is a rundown of each league with a guess at where each team will end up in their respective league. The paper suggests whether they will be; champions, gain promotion, be in the play-off zone, in the top ten, end the season in mid-table, struggle or end up relegated. I then rank each team in order going by how well they performed the previous year.

Once this is done, I head over to a spreadsheet I made a number of years ago.

In this spreadsheet, I use a system called the 'points per place method' where I have looked at the past few seasons and averaged how many points a team gets in each position on the league table. For example : in League One, the team that finished the season as champions has done so with an average points total of 93.

To use this system with handicap betting, I add the league table order I made up from reading this week's copy of the Racing & Football Outlook to the points per place. Once this is done, I add the points that each team is given by the bookmaker to find a final number. The final process is to sort them in order to get an idea of how the bookmakers league table could look once the season has finished.

In the example I gave above - the team who finished first in League One has done so with an average of 93 points. This year, the RFO believes that Peterborough will win League One so, from the off, they get ninety-three points from my system. The bookmakers are giving the team a five point head start on the season, this makes their final number 98.

Remember : Season Handicap Betting factors in EVERY team in the league not just the team you're betting on.

As noted, I have used this process for the Championship, League One and League Two. Below are the top four sides from each league with the team's handicap points in parenthesis.

In closing, I don't think this is a guaranteed way of winning. It's just something fun that I like doing each summer.

1. Bolton (+5) 97pts
2. Watford (+7) 92pts
3. Wigan (+6) 87pts
4. Ipswich (+14) 87pts

League One
1. Peterborough (+5) 98pts
2. Preston (+10) 96pts
3. Tranmere (+19) 89pts
4. Brentford (+5) 84pts

League Two
1. Cheltenham (+11) 93pts
2. Chesterfield (+3) 91pts
3. Rochdale (+16) 91pts
4. Scunthorpe (+11) 90pts

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