Saturday, October 03, 2026

Colts -4 Against The Commanders - Has It Lost Value?

I see the Indianapolis Colts are now four-point favourites to beat the Washington Commanders when they meet at Tottenham Hotspur Stadium tomorrow afternoon.

That's a big drop considering the designated visiting team (they're both visitors imo!) were written up as +1.5 road dogs when early lines were published in May.

Checking in with what I wrote in Taylor's Pro Football Gambling Annual, if I had a fiver to bet on this game right now, I'd pass.

Indianapolis Colts .vs. Washington Commanders Recent Betting History

The previous eight meetings clearly favoured the Colts straight up. They have a win-loss of 5-3 (63%) in that category. They would have been a perfect punt as +1.5 dogs. Now, as four-point chalk? Not so much.

Value gone.

The last time the Colts played in London


I also have a dreadful memory of the last time Indianapolis played in London. I had them backed as a pick 'em against the Jaguars.

The Wembley Stadium game, which 'celebrated' its tenth anniversary yesterday, ended with Jacksonville 30-27 winners. 

It's safe to conclude with one assurance: I'm not taking the Colts. With that said, I don't find Washington +4 an appealing counter.

Daniels ruled out for London clash


Commanders' quarterback, Jayden Daniels, has been ruled out for a second straight week after dislocating his elbow against Dallas in Week 2.

A Marcus Mariota led Commanders upset the current Super Bowl champions last weekend. The 33-31 win over the Seahawks saw Washington +8.5 cover in the Beat the Champs betting angle. However, per the very same system, this week's game places the Commanders in the fade/come down spot.

For a more extensive look at this weekend's slate of games, and every other game for the remainder of the 2026 season, check out Taylor's Pro Football Gambling Annual.

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