Bookmakers have finally published season handicap betting markets for all four of the major domestic football leagues. You know what that means, right?!
This is now my sixteenth year writing about season handicap betting. It began with THIS POST in July 2010, in which I wrote about having a punt on the Premier League handicap market. The coverage has since evolved to the point where I write about my methods wagering on the top four divisions in English football.
Before I begin, it's worth explaining what season handicap betting is. Then I'll get to the method I currently use to secure my betting selections.
What Is Season Handicap Betting?
You may have seen a market called 'Season Handicap Winner' when you've browsed bookmakers' outright offerings for the Premier League right through to League Two.
This genre of long-term market sees bookmakers giving every team in a respective league a fictional points start. Then, once the entire season has concluded, the fictional points are added to the actual points for each team to determine which side tops the season handicap table.
The strongest team in the league is often given zero points. Obviously the team with the longest odds of winning a regular outright season winner market gets a more generous offering of points.
How I Pick My Selections
I have a process where I work out what the average finishing points are per each position in a league table.
For example, in the Premier League, the division winners have accumulated an average of eighty-nine points since the 2004/05 season. On the other side of the scale, the team at the bottom of the table have only earned an average of twenty-five points across a regular Premier League year.
So, with the points per position knowledge for the Premier League through to League 2, I then have to sort each team in their predicted finishing order.
I've used a handful of different methods to work out how the actual league tables will finish BEFORE applying each teams' handicap points.
One of the earliest approaches was to buy the Racing and Football Outlook preview guides, work out where the newspaper's writers expected teams to finish and then work out a table using those predictions.
I've also simply ranked the team in the order bookmakers have the leagues priced up in their regular outright markets.
Most recently, I have began to use AI assistants to make their final prediction tables.
What Happens Then?
I open up the spreadsheet, place the teams in the predicted order the AI assistant has given me. I then apply the handicap points next to each team. Once that's done, their handicap points and the average position points are added together allowing me to sort the table and work out which teams top the table. I focus on the top four because I place each-way bets which pay out to four places.
Premier League Season Handicap Predictions
For this year's season handicap post, I've asked ChatGPT to give me its predicted finishing tables for all four leagues. I did so by asking to come up with results using a 'Football Manager-style simulation'.
It guesses that the league will be won by Liverpool. It forecasts Arsenal, Manchester City and Chelsea to finish consecutively below them.
Liverpool have been given seven points. With that number added to average, their total is ninety-six. That was enough to have them sat atop of the predicted handicap table for the 2026/27 season.
Below Liverpool are Newcastle United (89 total), Arsenal (82 total) and Chelsea (80 total) for those thinking about placing each-way bets on any of the first four.
My selection: I'm going to play it 'safe', or as safe as you can be in a crapshoot concept like season handicap betting, by taking Liverpool.
Championship Season Handicap Predictions
ChatGPT has Burnley to be finish first in the Championship this coming season. Going by the regular outright market, The Clarets are third-favourites. In handicap wagering, the bookies have given them a nine-point head-start making a forecasted total of ninety-two.
Burnley's 92 points places them third in the predicted finishing table. West Bromwich Albion are on top thanks to a 26-point handicap plus a projected points haul of sixty-nine from finishing eighth.
West Ham United, who are favourites to win in the regular outright market, were also ChatGPT's pick to get immediate promotion. Ninety-four points is the average for finishing top of the division. The Hammers will kick off with a zero-point head-start because of how fancied they are.
Wolverhampton Wanderers finished joint-second in the predicted finishing table. ChatGPT had them being the second team to be automatically promoted to the Premier League. Finishing in second has an average points score of 88. Add on their six-point start and that positions them alongside West Ham - with 92 points apiece - in the projected table.
My Selection: I'm taking the 26 points with West Brom, but I am doing so reluctantly. I feel West Ham is the play, but I dislike not getting points. A 26-point cushion is more appealing.
League 1 Season Handicap Predictions
Reading are top of the projected table for League 1. ChatGPT has them finishing fifth in the actual league. That position has an average of seventy-nine points. Add on the 18 given by the sportsbooks and that takes the season handicap projection to 97.
The AI assistant predicts Leicester City will be the overall winner of League 1. That placement has an average of 96 points. As favourites, in the handicap market, the Foxes will have to rely on their actual points tally because they have a 0 handicap. They're in joint-second in the projected table.
Sharing number two spot, beside Leicester, is the Luton Town selection. ChatGPT's simulation of League 2 has Luton finishing second. They have a seven-point head-start added to the 89 points for a second-placed finish.
Huddersfield have been given ten points by the bookies. Tallied up with their predicted finishing points of 84 - for finishing third - they are next on the season handicap predicted table with 94.
My selection: Laser-focused on the 18 point advantage, I'm picking Reading even though they're twelve in the actual outright markets.
League 2 Season Handicap Predictions
ChatGPT has given Exeter City a fourth-placed finish, in its simulation of the 2026/27 season for League 2. That position has an average score of 79 points. As for the season handicap - betting firms list Exeter in the middle of the pack and have assigned them 20 points. The 99 point total was enough to place Exeter at the top of my predicted season handicap table for this league.
Rotherham are currently a top price of 16/1 to win the league in the outright market for League 2. The AI assistant reckons they'll do so and, as a result, Rotherham's 9 point head-start is added to the 88 for a first-place finish leaving them with 97 and second behind Exeter in the projected season handicap table.
Crewe, who ChatGPT expects will finish fifth in the division, follow Exeter and Rotherham with 93 points via their 17-point handicap plus 76 for the finishing position.
Port Vale's 7 points was enough to see them fourth in the projected table. ChatGPT has The Valiants' 2026/27 campaign ending as runners-up. Teams which finish in second have done so with an average of eighty-four points.
My Selection: By now, I'm sure you won't be surprised to see I'm taking the double digits. I'm going with Exeter City +20.
Don't Forget (Plus a Cheap Plug)
One thing I make sure to point out every year, when I write these season handicap betting posts, is to reiterate that season handicap betting is a crapshoot. I've lost more times than I've won. I simply do these wagers as something to follow as the season is in progress.
Bet sensibly. Bet wisely.
Before I finish, I'd like to plug a book I've written for another kind of football.
Taylor's Pro Football Gambling Guide 2026 takes a look at every regular season game for the upcoming NFL season. As well as the week-by-week trends and stats, I have chapters covering other betting angles to consider from September through to January.
You can read more about it on THIS PAGE or purchase it from THESE BOOKSTORES.
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