Fifty, Fifty

I fired up my Super Bowl coin toss database to see if there are any trends that have occurred each time the big game has been held in tonight's venue of New Orleans.

Well, a couple things did stand out.

First, 'Heads' has landed six out of ten times. That's a 60% trend. Those who follow my database and spreadsheet posts will know that I prefer to bet on selections that have a trend of sixty percent or higher, so that's obviously leading me to choose 'Heads', right?

Well - not so fast.

Take a look at the bottom of the results. 'Heads' has landed four times consecutively. When I noticed that, I thought to myself 'I think I have to go Tails'.

I've asked a bunch of friends what they would do. It's close to a split with half of them choosing to stick with 'Heads' while others - who could be classed as biased - think 'Tails for Wales never fails'.

I have done these small coin toss wagers for fun. I'm on at least a three-Super Bowl run of having guessed the correct call (using historical stats to sway me) and I know I'm going to lose this one if I don't go with my gut (Tails). 

But - the trend is telling me to play Heads. I have to back the trend.