It was an irksome loss, but it was even more annoying when you consider that was the only game - of the four played last weekend - which fell Under the total.
The playoffs series, for the spreadsheet and database, are now 2-4.
For this weekend's Conference Championship, the spreadsheet has the Buffalo Bills to beat the Chiefs by four points in the AFC Championship. That's a play on Bills +1.5.
It also has it even between the Washington Commanders and Philadelphia Eagles calling for a tie in the NFC Championship.
Obviously, the 'tie' would mean to back the underdogs in the game. Therefore, it's calling for the Commanders +6.
For what it's worth, the database dislikes the latter. It does, however, mildly leans on the Bills.
The things siding with the Buffalo Bills +1.5 play are:
- The Bills are 14-9 against the spread in overall games against Kansas City
- The Bills are 10-4 against the spread as the road team against Kansas City
- The Bills are 7-4 when playing as road dogs against the Chiefs
With that said, I do have some worrying stats. And these are recent trends at that.
In the playoffs, the Chiefs are 3-0 straight up and against the spread when opposing the Bills.
The Bills +1.5 is the only play I will make on these games. The spreadsheet and database are far apart in taking Washington and in the totals plays for both fixtures.
The spreadsheet has BOTH games to have fifty points apiece. Therefore, it's pointing to Over 47.5 in BOTH contests. The database dislikes the plays because:
- The Over-Under is 26-32-2 in all games played between Washington and Philadelphia dating back to the mid-90s
- The Over-Under is 15-14-1 when Washington visits the Eagles
- The Over-Under is 9-14 overall in Buffalo .vs. Kansas City games dating back to the mid-90s
- The Over-Under is 4-7 when Buffalo is the road team against the Chiefs
As noted, the database dislikes the play on the Washington Commanders +6. Here's why:
- Washington are 26-30-4 against the spread overall against the Eagles dating back to the mid-90s
- Washington are 20-21-2 as dogs in all games against Philadelphia
- Washington are 15-11-4 against the spread when playing in Philly
- Washington are 12-9-2 as road dogs against the Eagles
The last option may appear good. However, my personal rule is to only go for plays with a 60% strike-rate or higher. This falls three percent short.
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