I bet you didn't think the spreadsheet and database would show their faces around these parts until at least September after their disastrous 2024 NFL regular season which saw the series go 13-15-3.
With that said, I did promise - in the last post about the spreadsheet and database - that I would go through each playoff game and cherry pick some sides and totals to play.
Here's everything I've looked at for all six games of the opening round of the playoffs for the 2024 season.
My spreadsheet has the Chargers to beat the Texans by four points and for there to be a total number of forty-four points.
As of the time of writing, the Chargers are listed as three-point favourites and the totals line is 42.5. Therefore, the spreadsheet is recommending a play on the favourites and the Over.
The database likes both selections.
In the history of meetings between the two teams, the Chargers have won six out of nine times. To narrow it down to playing as the favourite, they're 5-2 (71%).
If we're to focus only on games when the Chargers are the road team, they're 4-1 both straight up and against the spread in those fixtures. They have a 3-1 win-loss when playing as the road favourites.
The Over-Under is 5-3-1 in all games between the Chargers and Texans and is 4-1 whenever the Texans are the home team.
My plays on the Chargers @ Texans: I'm taking the Chargers -3 and Over 42.5.
Pittsburgh Steelers @ Baltimore Ravens
The spreadsheet has the Baltimore Ravens to defeat the Steelers by four points and for there to be forty-eight points scored in the game.
With the line set at ten-points, the spreadsheet is looking for the Steelers +10 and Over 44.
I really dislike taking underdogs when the spreadsheet doesn't have them winning, but I think a case could be made for the Steelers by looking at the database results.
Pittsburgh are 35-26 straight up against the Ravens and have a 31-25-5 against the spread record against them. In those against the spread fixtures, the Steelers are 15-6-3 (71%) when cast as the underdogs.
As road dogs against the Ravens, Pittsburgh are 12-5 (71% again).
But, that's not all. I've looked at the playoff history between the two sides.
The Steelers and Ravens have met four times and the former has won three times. The thing working against this historical note is all of those games were played in Pittsburgh and not Baltimore, where this weekend's meeting takes place.
As for the database's look at the Over-Under history, the record is 30-29-2 overall and 14-15 when the teams have met in Baltimore.
One more thing I should add is the Over-Under is 3-0-1 in the aforementioned playoff games.
My play on the Steelers @ Ravens: I am going to pass on taking the Over, but will go against my better judgement and take Pittsburgh and the 10 points.
Green Bay Packers @ Philadelphia Eagles
The spreadsheet predicts the Eagles will win over the Packers by two points and for there to be forty-four points.
As of this moment, the Eagles are -4.5 and the total is 45. Therefore, the spreadsheet is recommending plays on the Packers +4.5 and Under 45.
The database does not like the Packers play. That's because they're 9-10 straight up and 8-11 against the spread against the Eagles dating back to the mid-90s. They're at 4-6 whenever they've been cast as the underdogs against the Eagles.
With the Packers as the road team, the database points to 3-6 straight up and 4-5 against the spread records as visitors and covered three out of seven games when cast as the road dogs.
There are a few positive arguments for taking the Packers if you spotlight their post-season record against the Eagles.
The two sides met in the playoffs in 2003 and 2010. They share wins against each other. However, when looking at their against the spread records, the Packers are 2-0. They were road dogs in both those games just like they'll be this weekend.
The Under 45 play looks better on paper compared with the recommendation on the Packers.
That's because the Over-Under has an overall record of 7-12 dating back to the mid-90s. The Under has also struck seven out of a possible nine times in games played with the Eagles as the home side.
The Under is also 0-2 in those two aforementioned playoff meetings between the Eagles and Packers.
PASS
Denver Broncos @ Buffalo Bills
The spreadsheet is siding with the Bills to beat the Denver Broncos. However, it isn't by much as it predicts a two-point win and for the total to be fifty-two.
The spreadsheet is therefore suggesting gambles on Denver +9 and Over 47.
Even though the database shows that Denver has a 7-5 straight up record against the Bills since the mid-90s, it also points out that the Broncos are 3-9 against the spread in those contests.
From those fixtures, the Denver Broncos are also 1-2 against the spread when they've been cast as the underdogs to the Bills.
A look at the Broncos as the road team against Buffalo doesn't soothe things either. They're 2-5 against the spread as visitors against the Bills and are 1-1 when playing as the road dogs.
The Over-Under in games between the Broncos and Bills has an overall record of 7-5 and it's at 4-3 when the games have been played with Buffalo at home.
It might compel some to take the Over, but the 58% overall and 57% with the Bills at home makes me shy away because I prefer the strike-rate to be higher than sixty.
PASS
Washington Commanders @ Tampa Bay Buccaneers
The spreadsheet has the Washington Commanders and Tampa Bay Buccaneers to tie their meeting and for there to be a total of fifty points scored.
Obviously, with this being a playoff game, there cannot be a tie. However, in regards to the spreadsheet and wagering, a tie means to look at the underdog. For this fixture, that's Washington +3.
Washington is 9-11 straight up and 9-9-2 against the spread against the Bucs since the mid-90s. However, when they've played as underdogs in those fixtures, their win-loss is 7-4-2.
I've narrowed it down and the number is 4-3-1 as road dogs against Tampa Bay.
But.. there are other factors to look at.
The Washington team played Tampa Bay in the playoffs of 1999, 2005 and 2020. Despite having a 1-2 straight up record in those games, they have a perfect 3-0 record against the spread. And - to make it even more interesting considering they are underdogs this weekend - the Washington team were dogs in all three of those against the spread covers.
I think that's enough to take a punt on the Commanders.
As for the total - the line is set at 50. With the spreadsheet also leaning on fifty, I cannot take either side. However, for those keen to look at the database results, here they are:
The Over-Under is 8-12 Overall and is 4-6 in Tampa Bay.
The O-U is 1-2 in the playoff meetings I mentioned.
My play on Washington @ Tampa Bay: Washington +3
Minnesota Vikings @ Los Angeles Rams
The final game of the Wild Card Round will be played on Monday night when the Minnesota Vikings travel to Los Angeles to take on the Rams.
My spreadsheet has the Vikings to win by two points and for there to be a total of fifty-two points scored.
The database results for a play on Minnesota -1 looks appealing overall, but not if I only focus on the Vikings on the road.
That's because - as favourites overall - Minnesota has a record of 4-2. This is despite them having a 7-7 straight up and 6-7-1 against the spread record in overall games between the Rams since the mid-90s.
The Minnesota -1 play is even less appealing when acknowledging they're 4-5 straight up, 3-5-1 against the spread and 1-2 as favourites when visiting the Rams.
There has also been a meeting between the Vikings and Rams in the post-season that would turn off anyone from siding with the spreadsheet's recommendation.
In 1999, the Vikings lost outright and failed to cover the spread against the Rams.
The totals line for this game is currently 48. As noted, the spreadsheet expects fifty-two points. Therefore, the recommendation is to take the Over.
My database loves the Over. That's due to it striking ten out of fourteen times (71%) in all meetings between the two sides since the mid-90s. The O-U looks even better when looking only at the fixtures when the Vikings visit the Rams because it is 8-1. That's 89%.
Also - seeing as I mentioned the 1999 playoff meeting, I should point out the Over struck in that game.
My play on the Vikings @ Rams: It's obviously a play on Over 48, but a pass on Minnesota -1.
And there you have it. I'll return next week with the results of the five selections and then look to picking some more sides and totals for the divisional round.
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