NFL Spreadsheet And Database Betting: Week 13 2024

In week 12, my NFL spreadsheets and database went 1-1 yet again.

The series is now at 12-10 for 2024. 

For this week's fixtures, I have bet on a total in one of the Thanksgiving games and selected a pointspread play on one of Sunday's early matches.

My spreadsheet has projected a total of forty-three points to be scored in the Thursday Night Football meeting between the Miami Dolphins and Green Bay Packers.

As of the time of writing, the total is 47. Therefore, the play I've opted for is to go Under.

The database likes the selection because it shows that, dating back to the mid-90s, there have been eight games played between these two teams. Of those games, five have fallen under the total.

Further to that, the fixtures that have been played on the Packers' turf have all fallen to the Under with the O-U at 0-4.

The pointspread play is on the Minnesota Vikings to beat the visiting Arizona Cardinals.

My spreadsheet for that game has the Vikes to cover the 3.5 spread.

Minnesota are 13-4 against the Cardinals since the mid-90s and are at 8-4-1 in those games whenever the bookmakers have them installed as the favourites.

Ten of those games have been played with the Vikings as the home side. They've won all ten games straight up and are 7-2-1 against the spread when cast as the match faves.

One of the games I was looking at playing - but won't for obvious reasons - is the Cleveland Browns' visit to Denver.

My spreadsheet liked the underdog Browns because it has them winning by a point. The Browns will have additional time to prepare from last Thursday's game - a win over the Steelers - because they're meeting the Broncos on Monday night.

The thing which prompted me to avoid the Browns play is because the database dislikes the play.

The Browns are 2-9 straight up against the Broncos. They're also 2-5-1 as underdogs. To narrow it to games played with Browns as the dogs against the Broncos, they're 2-5 against the spread and 2-4 when they're the underdogs.

So, even though the spreadsheet and the Thursday night situation play strongly sides with the Browns for the upset (or, at least, a cover) I have to pass because history is not on the Browns' side.