It wasn't just a regular loss. It was a gut-wrenching defeat because it was a play that stood out to me over the summer and was something I had put a pin in until it was time to place a bet.
The Over 47 punt on the Buffalo at Seattle fixture was graded as a loss immediately after the game finished 31-10 to the Bills. It was a touchdown, and PAT, short.
I have placed two wagers on this weekend's slate.
In the first, I have gone for the Indianapolis Colts to cover the +5.5 spread against the Minnesota Vikings on Sunday Night Football.
The Colts made the decision to bench Anthony Richardson in favour of Joe Flacco earlier this week. Considering how Richardson had been playing, that is an upgrade for the team, in my opinion.
My spreadsheet has both teams to tie. As noted over the years, a 'tie' in the spreadsheet indicates a play on the underdog. In this situation, it's pointing to Indianapolis.
The database likes the Colts historically when they meet the Vikes.
Indianapolis are 6-2 straight up and against the spread dating back to the mid-90s. They're 3-1 when the team is the designated underdogs against the Vikings.
Those results are for all games between the teams. When looking at only games when the Colts are the visitors, the database results shows them as 3-1 against the spread and 2-1 when defined as road dogs.
The second play is on the Dallas Cowboys versus Atlanta Falcons match to go under its total of fifty-two.
My spreadsheet has the game to fall four points under the total, so I checked the database to see if anything stood out.
Overall, the Over-Under is 6-7, so there's not much to draw from that other than the Under gets a slight edge. However, if only considering games played with Atlanta as the home side, then the Under has struck on five out of six meetings.
As of today's post, the spreadsheet and database series is 8-6 after eight weeks. It has gone 4-3 in pointspread plays and is also 4-3 in gambling on the totals.
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