NFL Spreadsheet And Database Betting: Week 7 2024

In last week's NFL Spreadsheet and Database post, I decided to pass on suggesting any picks. It's a good job I did because two of the games I had written about, but were eventually turned off by, would have ended up being losing plays.

One of those picks I avoided was Dallas +3. They were obliterated 47-9 by the Detroit Lions on Sunday night.

As far as this week goes, I am taking an Under and a road dog.

Las  Vegas @ LA Rams Under 43.5
My spreadsheet has the Raiders' visit to Los Angeles to have a total score of forty points. That's three-and-a-half below the current line.

Checking over previous meetings between these two sides, I notice the Under has struck five out of seven times since the 1995 season. 

The teams have met in the Rams' home three times in that period with the O-U coming in with a 1-2 record.

In an attempt to make the case even more positive, I had a look at the O-U results whenever the Rams have returned from a bye week (as they're doing this week) and that is 14-16. So, not much to make a strong argument for. However, if I were to only focus on times when the Rams have returned in week seven following a bye, then the O-U is 1-3 (75% to the Under) since '95.

Miami +3 against Indianapolis
My spreadsheet has the Miami Dolphins .vs. Indianapolis Colts game to be tied. Whenever it does that, it means to take a look at the underdog in the fixture.

The Dolphins are three-point road dogs. They've found themselves in this situation ten times since 1995 and have won on eight occasions.

If I were to spotlight only on games played with Miami as the road dog, then the percentage improves to 88% because the team has a win-loss of 7-1 under those conditions as the visiting team.

Another thing working in favour of Miami is they are coming off a bye. However, their against the spread win-loss is not strong, although it does work in their favour, as the team is 13-12-4 (52%) in that position.

The Spreadsheet and Database plays are currently 7-4 during the 2024 NFL season. You can see which plays I chose, along with their results (Green for a win, red for a loss) in the table below.