As of today, my spreadsheet and database betting series is 6-3 for the 2024 season.
Last week's result was 1-1 with a win on Baltimore -2.5 against the Buffalo Bills and a losing punt on the Seattle Seahawks +2.5 against Detroit.
The former won the game comfortably with a score of 35-10. As for the Seahawks? Well, it would be fair to state they lost uncomfortably with a score of 29-42.
There are a lot of database plays which stand out for this week's fixtures. Unfortunately, my spreadsheet does not agree with a few of them
For example, the database has pointed to the Indianapolis @ Jacksonville game and shows that the Jags are 7-0 overall when they're cast in the role of favourites. They have been favoured at home against the Colts on four of those occasions just like they're positioned this weekend.
My spreadsheet has the Colts to win straight up by four points, so that meant I have to pass.
Here are two selections my spreadsheet and database do like, though.
NY Jets @ Minnesota Over 40.5
This will be the first London game of the season. It'll be played a Tottenham Hotspur Stadium, which will plays an important factor in why my database has sided with the spreadsheet's projection that this will go Over the total.
My spreadsheet predicts there will be forty-three points scored between both sides. That means there is a 2.5 point swing to the Over.
Looking at the history of the Jets versus Vikings games, since 1995, the database points to there having been seven matches with five of them resulting in the Over being struck.
Taking that 71% to the Over between the two sides, I thought I would delve further into how both teams' totals have fared in previous London games.
The Jets have played twice in Britain's capital. Their games are 1-1 Over-Under, so there's not much to make a case for the play. However, what did stand out is the fixture which did go Over was played in the same venue where they'll find themselves on Sunday.
Before I get to the Vikings, seeing as I've already mentioned Tottenham Hotspur Stadium, I thought I'd share this one with you: the Over is currently 5-3 (63%) in the International Series games that have been played on that ground.
As for the Vikings' visits to London - they have played three times in the city with games at Wembley Stadium (2013), Twickenham (2017) and Tottenham Hotspur Stadium (2022). The Over has a 100% strike-rate in those three games.
Green Bay -3 against the LA Rams
The spreadsheet has the Packers to beat the Rams by four points. They're currently -3 road favourites with the betting firms.
I have looked at the history between Packers and Rams games (including when the latter played their home games in St. Louis) and I've noticed that the Packers are 12-4 straight up in those meetings. They're 11-5 against the spread in those matches and, to narrow it down to only games when the Packers are the faves, they're 10-2.
The Packers are also 4-0 when they've been cast as road favourites against the Rams.
I think those numbers are enough to strengthen the pointspread recommendation from the spreadsheet.
This post should be up an hour before the game between the Buccaneers and Falcons kicks off. I have passed on both side and total, but thought I'd share with you the results of the spreadsheet.
It has the Bucs to win by five and for the total number of points to be around forty-five. Therefore, the spreadsheet is siding with Tampa +1.5 and Over 44.
Looking at the database, I passed on both selections because the side wasn't appealing enough. I did consider taking the totals bet, however.
Tampa, as dogs in all of their meetings with the Falcons since 1995, are 11-13. The number improves slightly to 9-8 when narrowing it down to the Bucs as road dogs.
The Over-Under is 28-20 overall and 16-8 whenever they've played with Atlanta as the home team.
I'll return to this topic, once again, next week.
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