Kind Of Not Predicting The TNF Winners (Week 1 2024)

As I have mentioned already, I have made the decision to no longer publish a weekly post in which I share my spreadsheet and database plays (or non-plays, for that matter!) on NFL games that are played on Thursday nights.

Instead of the TNF posts, I plan to run a regular feature where I pick at least one side and one total each week. There might be weeks when I choose a Thursday game, but the aim for the coming season is to not be cornered into only choosing the first fixture of the week.

I'm excited to see how the new approach goes because I feel I have a strong chance of finding some good picks which are attained using both my spreadsheet and a database with historical stats dating back to the 1995 season.

Before this season, I found myself getting selections from the spreadsheet for Thursday games but not being confident enough to run with them because history - via the database - did not look good. 

A lot of last season's TNF posts were filled with No Plays.  That will likely not be the case when I have a full card of games to analyse.

With all that said, tomorrow's Baltimore Ravens versus Kansas City Chiefs season opener was the first game I looked at.

My spreadsheet has the Ravens to win by two points and the total amount of points to be 46.

The Ravens are three-point underdogs and the totals line is set at 46.5. Therefore, the plays would have been to take the Ravens +3 and Under 46.5.

I had a look at the previous meetings between the two sides. Nothing much stands out to make a completely strong case for either betting selection.

Here's what I found

• The Ravens are 6-7 against the spread overall
• The Ravens are 3-4 against the spread overall when positioned as the underdogs
• The Ravens are 3-2 (60%) against the spread when playing as visitors against Kansas City
• The Ravens are 2-1 (67%) against the spread as road underdogs against the Chiefs
• The Over-Under is 8-4-1 overall
• The Over-Under is 2-3 in the fixtures played in Kansas City

If this were a Thursday Night post, I would have given a 'No Play' to Under 46.5. I would have mildly ran with the Ravens based on the stats I've highlighted.

I can write that knowing that is exactly how I would have acted because I have placed a real wager on the Ravens +3. 

It's the only bet I've placed on Week 1. So far. The Ravens selection isn't going to be my strongest play for this week. I know because I've studied them all...