Sunday, February 11, 2024

Super Bowl LVIII Spreadsheet And Database Analysis

It's the Super Bowl tonight. You know what that means.

Yep - it's the last time I'll get to use my NFL spreadsheet and database until September. 

For tonight's game, my spreadsheet has the 49ers winning by three and the total amount of points to be forty-five.

I disagree with the results. Especially the one on the 49ers winning. I would prefer them to do so, but I have a feeling we're going to see the Chiefs hoisting the Vince Lombardi Trophy when all is said and done.

With those projections, the spreadsheet is leaning on the following lines:

San Francisco -2
Under 47.5

I have taken a look over the history of 49ers .vs. Chiefs games since the 1995 season and here's what I have found.

  • The 49ers are 3-6 straight up
  • The 49ers are 2-7 against the spread
  • The 49ers are 1-3 when cast as the favourites
Not looking good, is it? For the Over-Under it has:
  • The Under is 4-5
Per the rules I applied for the Thursday Night Football posts this season, the disconnect between the spreadsheet and database means that tonight's game would be pass on the line and total.

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