Wednesday, December 27, 2023

Predicting The TNF Winners (Week 17 2023)

I'm going to pass on recommended plays for tomorrow's Thursday Night Football game between the Jets and the Browns.

My spreadsheet has the Browns winning the game by a touchdown and for the total number of points scored to be thirty-nine. Therefore, the plays it is suggesting is to take the Jets to cover the spread as +7.5 road dogs and for the total to go Over 35.

I immediately disliked the recommendation on the Jets, but entertained the option by looking up data from previous meetings between the two sides.

Here's what I found out.
  • The Jets are 8-5 straight up in these meetings 
  • The Jets are 5-2 straight up when they visit the Browns
  • The Jets are 8-5 against the spread in all games between the two teams
  • The Jets are 5-2 against the spread in Cleveland
Going by that history, it's easy to consider taking the Jets. However, here are a couple of deterrents.
  • The Jets are 2-4 in these meetings when cast as the underdogs
  • The Jets are 1-2 as underdogs in Cleveland
As for the Over:
  • These games have gone 5-8 Over-Under 
  • The Over-Under is 3-4 in the fixtures played out in Cleveland
With this being the final Thursday Night Football of the 2023 regular season, this confirms the Thursday Night Football posts for '23 ended up at .500 because the six plays in which the spreadsheet and database worked together went 3-3.

That is not a good score from a betting perspective because the strike-rate for profit has to go above 50% when wagering on the NFL.

Here is an updated table with the projections and results from all of the Thursday games from '23.

Thursday Night Football 2023 Results

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