Thursday, December 07, 2023

Predicting The TNF Winners (Week 14 2023)

Against my own better judgement, I am going to make a recommended play on tonight's Thursday Night Football game between the Patriots and Steelers.

Call it desperation at the close of the season, with a need to try and level the recommended plays out. But, there was something that caught my eye when I compared my spreadsheet's prediction with the database of results between the two teams since the mid-1990s.

Before I get there, I should point out that the spreadsheet has the Steelers winning by five points and for the total points - between both teams - to be thirty-three. 

The bookmakers have the Steelers favoured by six, so the call is to take the Patriots at +6.

Usually, I would not take a dog the spreadsheet doesn't have winning straight up. What has made me think it's worth a gamble is the fact that - as underdogs against the Steelers - the Pats have a record of 6-1 and, if I were to narrow it down to games played as road dogs (like tonight), the numbers are 5-1.

It's a reluctant play. I cannot emphasise that.

As for the Over/Under - the total line is currently set at 30. However, there is nothing willing me to back the Over because, using the historical data I have, the O-U is 11-11 in all games and 6-7 when the fixture takes place in Pittsburgh.

Recommended Play
New England Patriots +6

Here's everything I've used from the database in case you'd like to use it for your own wagering needs:

  • The Patriots are 15-7 straight up in all games and 8-5 straight up when visiting the Steelers
  • Pats are 13-6-3 against the spread overall and 7-4-2 when in Pittsburgh
  • As dogs, the Patriots are 6-1 overall and 5-1 in tonight's venue
  • The Over-Under is 11-11 in all games since the mid-1990s
  • The Over-Under is 6-7 in all games in Pittsburgh since the mid 90s

Thursday Night Football - Week 14 2023

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